Exports rise for the first time in 15 months

Overseas shipments gained 19.4 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 4.7 percent decline in October, the Ministry of Finance said in Taipei yesterday. The median estimate of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 19.3 percent increase. Imports rose 17.9 percent last month for a trade surplus of US$2.11 billion. A recovery in exports, which account for more than two-thirds of Taiwan's economy, may help the island emerge from a yearlong recession. Overseas shipments fell by the most in seven years in November 2008 as the financial crisis slashed demand, making a low base for comparison.

“The first increase in exports since August 2008 is due largely to base effect as well as a pickup in shipments to the U.S. and Europe ahead of the Christmas festive season,” said Tony Phoo, a Taipei-based economist at Standard Chartered Plc.

Companies including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's largest custom-chip maker, forecast fourth-quarter sales will increase as much as 43 percent from a year earlier.

Improving exports are needed to sustain Asia's emergence from the world recession after the region's governments pumped more than US$950 billion into their economies and cut interest rates to revive growth.

Yesterday's figures were released after the close of trading on the stock exchange. The TAIEX index rose 1.6 percent to close at 7,775.64. The Taiwan dollar declined 0.3 percent to NT$32.280 versus the U.S. dollar as of 4 p.m. local time, according to Taipei Forex Inc. The improvement in demand for Taiwan's exports adds to signs the global economy is recovering after the U.S. grew last quarter for the first time in more than a year and Europe's services and manufacturing industries expanded at the fastest pace in two years in November. Shipments to China, Taiwan's biggest overseas market, rose 56 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 9.8 percent gain in October, the ministry said. Shipments to the U.S. declined 5.8 percent, after dropping 16.5 percent in October, while sales to Europe rose 3.9 percent compared with a decline of 11 percent.

China's 4 trillion yuan stimulus package is spurring domestic demand. Its economy expanded 8.9 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace in a year, boosting sales for Taiwan electronics makers including HTC Corp., the world's largest producer of handsets using Microsoft Corp.'s Windows operating system.

Taiwan's central bank said in September it plans to maintain low borrowing costs to help pull the economy out of recession. Gross domestic product shrank 1.29 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30 from a year earlier, after contracting 6.85 percent in the second quarter. The statistics bureau today reported consumer prices fell 1.59 percent in November.

Central bank Governor Perng Fai-nan cut the benchmark interest rate seven times since late September 2008 to a record 1.25 percent. The bank will hold its quarterly policy meeting on Dec. 24.

Exports of electronic products including semiconductors rose 34.1 percent last month after rising 5.5 percent in October, yesterday's report showed. Shipments of information technology and communication products, including mobile phones, rose 16.3 percent, compared with October's gain of 0.2 percent.

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