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Economy could see green light for growth in October

TAIPEI, Taiwan -- The overall monitoring indicator for Taiwan's economic climate in October could flash a green light, a sign of stable economic growth, thanks to recent strong stock market performance, improved industrial production and strong wholesale/retail sales, a Council for Economic Planing and Development (CEPD) official said Friday.

If this happens, it will be the first time the economy has shown a green light since May 2008, the official said as a forerunner to the CEPD's unveiling of the latest economic monitoring data.

The total score of monitoring indicators fell October last year due to the global financial crisis, while the total score for this October was expected to register a significant year-on-year rise as the economy has gradually picked up recently, according to the official.

According to CEPD statistics, the total score of monitoring indicators gained 1 point, registering 19 points in September, and flashed the fourth consecutive yellow-blue light, which signals an economic slowdown.

The top economic planner uses a five-color system to gauge the economic performance for any given month. Yellow-blue implies a slowdown, green shows a stable economy, yellow-red means the economy is warming and blue represents recession, while red signifies overheating.

In September, both the indices of leading indicators and that of coincident indicators marked a rise of 1.7 percent from August, in each case the eighth consecutive monthly rise.

The Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Index (TAIEX) reached 7,588 points in October, compared with 5,043 points last October. The strong showing was expected to allow the indicators for stock prices to show a red light rather than the yellow-red light indicated in September.

After seasonal adjustment, the indicators for industrial production in October registered a 7.3 percent rise year-on-year and were likely to be given a yellow-red light.

The indicators for imports of machinery and mechanic equipment, wholesale/retailer business turnover also grew, and could be given a green light, according to the official.

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