Large revision to GDP forecast unlikely: experts
The China Post news staffTAIPEI, Taiwan -- The government's statistics bureau is unlikely to revise its 2013 Taiwan growth forecast by a significant margin, experts said yesterday.
February 20, 2013, 12:10 am TWN
The bureau, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS), will hold a news conference this Friday to announce Taiwan's gross domestic product (GDP) growth last year and its newest growth forecast for this year.
The agency back on Jan. 31 forecasted that Taiwan's economic growth will be 3.53 percent this year, an upward adjustment of 0.38 percent from the 3.15 percent it predicted at the end of last year.
At that event, DGBAS expressed its optimism that a recovery was indeed taking place. “We'll have a U-shaped recovery that will happen at a stronger and faster pace than we had expected,” it said.
As for whether DGBAS will further adjust its forecast upward, experts said such scenario is unlikely.
“The 0.38-percent adjustment last time was pretty big, and there weren't any significant economic changes over the past month,” said Luo Wei, economist with Fubon Financial.
According to Luo, a U-shaped recovery is one that happens after a downturn of one to three years. “This time around the downturn lasted only about a year,” he said. “That's what caused the DGBAS to be optimistic.”
Yet he said there are still many international uncertainties, including the parliamentary elections in Italy and the possible sequestration, or deep spending cuts, in the United States.
“Even if the DGBAS is to raise its GDP forecast, it wouldn't be by a big margin,” Luo said.