August exports may see decline for sixth consecutive month
The China Post news staff
September 7, 2012, 12:24 pm TWN
August exports may decline for the sixth month in a row, although the margin of decline may narrow, experts predicted yesterday.
They made the remarks prior to the release of August export figures by the Ministry of Finance today.
Fu Ming-tsai, chief economist with Standard Chartered, forecasted August would see a drop in exports, which have been on the decline since February. According to him, August exports would be US$25.2 billion, a decline of 2.3 percent on a year-on-year basis, on slowed shipments from Taiwan exporters such as HTC due to weak demands in the United States and Europe.
The margin of decline is expected to narrow from July, in which exports stood at US$24.85 billion, a decline of 11.6 percent year-on-year. With the new iPhone as well as other new handsets set to roll out, exports may experience positive growth in September, he said. Exports for the fourth quarter may also return to the positive territory, he added.
As for imports, they may hit US$23.7 billion in August, or a rise of 2.3 percent year-on-year, Fu predicted. The figure is indicative of moderate growth of domestic demands, prompting manufacturers to purchase new capital goods and equipment.
Cheng Chen-mao, chief economist with Citibank, also predicted a year-on-year export decline of 2.3 percent in August, a narrowing from July due to improvement in high-tech exports. He also forecasted a 3-percent export growth for the fourth quarter.
However, weak economic data in the United States and China may add to global uncertainties, he warned.