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September 20, 2017

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DPP pinpoints 3 key blocs as Tsai's Achilles Heel: report

An alleged leak from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) election headquarters identifies three key blocs that the party foresees swinging the election against presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen.

The document pinpoints Taiwanese businessmen based in mainland China, undecided voters, and defectors from the Soong coalition as Tsai's collective Achilles Heel.

If the blocs cast their ballots as expected, Tsai will lose to Ma by about 4 percent, according to DPP estimates.

According to an anonymous Kuomintang (KMT) source, a KMT campaign office in Greater Kaohsiung received confidential DPP intelligence on Dec.19, one day after a mass rally for President Ma Ying-jeou in Fengshan District (鳳山區). The rally drew a crowd upwards of 60,000.

Ma and Tsai are neck and neck in many local polls, but Tsai could lose by at least four percent if three factors materialize.

An estimated 800,000 Taiwanese businessmen based in mainland China are expected to return to vote. According to the document, these are "handpicked pan-blue supporters."The document allegedly cites a worst-case scenario of 70 percent in this bloc swinging blue and giving Ma a 560,000-ballot lead.

The document also names undecided voters as a key strength for the KMT, according to the source.

The combined presidential and legislative Election Day is expected to boost voter turnout to 75 percent, up from the 71 percent who participated in the last presidential election. The increased turnout will be comprised chiefly of pan-blue and undecided voters, because voters who cast a green ballot are among those expected to voted anyway.

Of the 520,000-ballot increase, Ma is expected to take at least 70 percent, or about 360,000 votes.

Supporters of People First Party (PFP, 親民黨) presidential candidate James Soong may also defect to Ma on Election Day, out of unwillingness to see Tsai in office.

The DPP allegedly estimates the Soong stronghold at about 7 percent of the nation's constituency, or an estimated 650,000 votes. Some 260,000 from the Soong camp will ultimately bite the bullet and vote for Ma, according to the document.

The three blocs combined will give Ma a leg up on Tsai by approximately 1.18 million votes. Assuming that Soong is able to secure 650,000 votes that are all from the pan-blue coalition, Ma's lead will be about 530,000 — about 4 percent of the estimated voter turnout.

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