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Updated Tuesday, November 30, 2010 10:46 am TWN, CNA |
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Concern grows over 'Yeltsin effect'The north-south divide remains, as northern Taiwan leans toward the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) while the main opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) receives strong support from the south, said Nathan F. Batto, an assistant research fellow at Academia Sinica who has been observing Taiwan elections for almost 20 years. The election results show that “each side won races on its own turf... and that central Taiwan is the battleground,” Batto said in the forum organized by the Institute for National Policy Research (INPR) to examine policy directions after the five municipal elections. The KMT posted big wins in the northern cities of Taipei and Xinbei and narrowly won the central city of Taichung by about 2 percentage points, while the DPP swept the two southern cities of Tainan and Kaohsiung. The results are a clear victory for the KMT, which won three of the five seats, but statistics show that the DPP had above-average performance in Taipei, Xinbei and Taichung compared to in the past, Batto said, adding that “the surge toward the KMT in 2008 is gone.” The expanded or upgraded five municipalities could bring a so-called “Boris Yeltsin effect,” said Antonio Chiang, a political commentator who served as deputy secretary-general of the National Security Council from 2000-2004, because the five cities will have much greater resources, funding and power than the country's other smaller cities and counties. The “Yeltsin effect” was first seen when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 after Boris Yeltsin seized power in the aftermath of a failed coup that had attempted to topple reform-minded Mikhail Gorbachev. When he became Russian president, Yeltsin relegated the other countries of the former Soviet Union to far lesser status. Comments November 30, 2010 johnny.brian@ Reply Boris Yeltsin did well for the betterment of the mother country Russia. Yeltsin has strong leadership and vision. Given Chen Shiu Bian 8 years.....did Taiwan get any better? Or just tons of corruption cases? Then blame on KMT for political prosecution. November 30, 2010 edcheng@ The election results could be very much different if not for the shooting incident at the eve of the voting. It could have been 4 to 1 or 3 to 2 in favor of the DPP. But one thing is for sure, the DPP had gains tremendous ground on Kuomintang, particularly with the younger voters. This is bad news for China and President Ma.Overall, it is more than the Yeltsin effect. The DPP was sharp to exploit the greatest fear factor of the general public to gain the huge support - that is being 'swallowed or gobbled by China'. The way the DPP depicts itself, cultivates its members and adheres to its pro-independence stance meant that Taiwan will remains fractional in their favors. The succeeding younger generations being born in Taiwan will have less affinity towards China or unification. Anyway, it is for Taiwanese themselves to decide. What the heck outsiders like me got to comment! December 1, 2010 charles@ I do not believe the shooting incident had any affect on the election results. The shooting of a Green candidate will produce a greater turnout of Green supporters at the poll booths. The shooting of a Blue candidate can have the reverse effect. Some Blue voters might even be intimidated and opt to stay away from the polling booths. December 1, 2010 carltanong@ @edchengThe KMT didn’t take that shooting as an opportunity to gain sympathy votes. The KMT are not similar to the DPP by using fake assassination or shooting to win sympathy votes. e.g. Corrupt ABIAN won the 2004 reelection from the 3/19 fake assassination in gaining sympathy voter by just merely 0.02 % winning margins nationwide. e.g. Chen Chih-chung won the councilor seats by dragging his own old aged grandma at the rally to gain sympathy votes. If you review the video footage of how Mom Tsai made her 3 points statement the night after the shooting, she seemed nervous in her speech with a choking sound. In her speech, Tsai blamed the KMT but asked the public not to jump into conclusion and politicize the shooting incidence. Mom Tsai is the first person to say it's gangster violence. edcheng. Would you mind telling the people of Taiwan how come Mom Tsai knew before hand that it's gangster violence before investigation from the authority? Isn't something strange with Mom Tsai from her 3 point statements??? The DPP used the word independence and asserted themselves as Taiwanese as a propaganda tool to deceive the people of Taiwan for political reasons and to gain power. If any greenish CHINESE who was born in the island of Taiwan called himself as the true Taiwanese, what then should the Kinmen-Matsu-Penghu peoples call themselves??? If Taiwanese the greenish raise the flag of the Japanese facsimile emperor chrysanthemum flag, will the Kinmenese, Matsuese and the Penhuese follow??? Past, Present and future younger generation who was born in Taiwan was Taiwanese Chinese. As long as they didn’t change the surname of their Chinese Ancestor. Taiwanese is forever Chinese under the Flag of Republic of China. Kinmenese, Matsuese and Penghuese likewise. The greenish Taiwanese can't deny they are not Chinese. Because not only their Surname prove they are Chinese. The National Museum of Taiwan and the Mandarin Chinese Language and Character they SPEAK and WRITE can prove they are CHINESE. Only one gentleman has proven that he is a Japanese. And these gentleman was IWASATO MASAO (NIPPONESE LEE TENG HUI). HE CRIED WHEN TAIWAN WAS RETURNED TO CHINA FROM JAPAN AFTER WW2. HE CRIED WHEN JAPANESE EMPEROR HIROHITO DIED. HE CRY AND TOLD HIS JAPANESE AUTHOR FRIEND THAT HE IS A JAPANESE. HE DECLARED OUR TIAOYUTAI BELONG TO JAPAN. HE KOWTOW TO THE JAPANESE WAR CRIMINAL INSIDE YASUKUNI SHRINE. Edcheng. Do you want to delete your own surname as "Cheng"? Are you willing to called somebody ancestor as your ancestor and have a brand new surname??? December 1, 2010 jimmytswang@ edcheng, at least you got a good remark in your last sentence. So what the heck an outsider like you got to comment?! Then stay out!Even without the shooting, KMT would have won at least 2 out of 5. Hardcore DPPs are responsible for the shooting. The incident further asserts DPP as a terrorist organization trying to stop KMT or anyone that opposes the "Green Party" views. DPP chairwoman Tsai was a DISGRACE when asked about the shooting incident, accusing KMT for public safety issues, not even sending a message of sorrow to the Lien family. Unbelievable! The shooting incident woke up a lot of people that would have otherwise stayed out of the voting booths on Saturday. After hearing the accusation speech from Tsai, it cemented in many people's eyes the real purpose and character of the DPP. Member on the center of the DPP might not have called for this violence, but their behavior certainly provoked DPP hardcore group to take such action. The perplexing part of all these, was the lack of any DPP candidates opinion and/or callout to stop violence when asked by the media. Or at least show support for an injured citizen and the family of another that died on the scene. Yeap, taking out a potential future KMT candidate before it is too late? DPP is no different from Al-Qaeda. December 1, 2010 jimmytswang@ johnny.brian, Yeltsin was not that strong of a leader and his vision was flawed. During his tenure as Russia President, there were many problems such as the rise of the Russian mafia and privatization of many natural resources that were essential to the country. Yeltsin knew things were getting out of control by the time his term was ending, so he called on Putin to clean up. Putin's hardline stance, allowed Russia to take back their precious natural resources from private corporations that were manipulating the economic and political direction of the nation.As for DPP and A-bian, their political platform is based on fear and hatred. Brainwashing the public and dividing the Taiwan. What is the result? The shooting incident that almost killed the son of Lien Chan. December 2, 2010 ludahai_twn@ Once again, Carltanong is spouting frothing at the mouth racist rhetoric@edcheng - 2/3 of the people of Taiwan disagree with you according to post-election opinion polls... @johnny.brian -- President Chen was unsuccessful in many areas largely because the KMT blocked his proposals at every turn, not permitting proposed reforms (including anti-corruption sunshine laws and flood prevention projects) to see the light of day... December 3, 2010 johnny.brian@ jimmytswang@ wrote: USSR was a big country, yet Yeltsin did some reform to Russia. Nobody is perfect, at least Yeltsin introduced political and social changes. I agreed with you about the DPP and A-bian using fear and hatred as their political platform, the result were two shooting incidents. Despite of poorly orchestrated, A-bian won the re-election. While the latest shooting of Sean Lien, maybe true. But listen to DPP’s accusations, they have their rights because of their own experiences. Refer to 329 incident, which rose my curiosity. Why the wound of A-bian located in the stomach while there was a belt strapped around his waist to the rollover bar of the jeep? If A-bian lost in 2004, he won't be jailed today.johnny.brian, Yeltsin was not that strong of a leader and his vision was flawed. During his tenure as Russia President, there were many problems such as the rise of the Russian mafia and privatization of many natural resources that were essential to the country. Yeltsin knew things were getting out of control by the time his term was ending, so he called on Putin to clean up. Putin's hardline stance, allowed Russia to take back their precious natural resources from private corporations that were manipulating the economic and political direction of the nation. As for DPP and A-bian, their political platform is based on fear and hatred. Brainwashing the public and dividing the Taiwan. What is the result? The shooting incident that almost killed the son of Lien Chan. December 4, 2010 carltanong@ @ludahai 12/2I sympathize with your ignorance that you just can't absorb and accept the truth and all the true facts that happened since 2000. Corrupt ABIAN was a brilliant and extra intelligent Lawyer and Master of all Architects of Deception that all his notion and blueprint were successfully achieved and implemented. 1_Corrupt ABIAN successfully won the election in 2000 with the help of his godfather IWASATO MASAO to split the KMT. Sure of course with secret agreement or may I say confidential contract with IWASATO MASAO to engineer the construction of so many to sow hatred if he won the election. 2_Corrupt ABIAN successfully won the 2004 reelection via engineering of a FAKE ASSASINATION with a WEIRD WOUND blueprint in his stomach. 3_Corrupt ABIAN was so successful that he became a MULTI-millionaire President $$$ overnight by robbing the people that only Corrupt ABIAN and Family can see the light of day. 4_Corrupt ABIAN was so successful to change and erase President Chiang Kai Shek’s name (e.g. International airport, memorial park and all his statues were thrown away). And erased the 2 words 中華 to divert the attention of his CRIMES against the peoples and our country. The only failure of Corrupt ABIAN is that he forgot that people are watching and wondering how such a President ABIAN and Family can live and spend LAVISHLY while the people were suffering without light of day for 8 long years of darkness. Ludahai. I’m expecting the 3 favorite word of yours that will appear again. But.... .....I LOVE IT..... December 7, 2010 jimmytswang@ johnny.brain@, I have to correct you, A-bian would not have been jailed if he lost the 2004 elections because he would have had less time and opportunity to pocket more money. Like I said before, as you and many are aware the March 2004 incident was a joke. December 8, 2010 johnny.brian@ jimmytswang@ wrote: Thanks for correction. 319 incident is really a joke but also a well executed scheme for the former 1st family to steal more. If a thief steals NT$100, it is hardly unnoticeable. If a thief along with his collaborators and stole NT$10,000; certainly will be caught. A-bian and his family are big liars.johnny.brain@, I have to correct you, A-bian would not have been jailed if he lost the 2004 elections because he would have had less time and opportunity to pocket more money. Like I said before, as you and many are aware the March 2004 incident was a joke. | |||||||||||||