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September 24, 2017

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Morgan Stanley sticks to estimates of big drop in Q2 laptop shipments

TAIPEI, Taiwan -- Morgan Stanley has maintained estimates of a sizeable drop in worldwide laptop shipments from major original design manufacturers (ODMs) in Taiwan during the second quarter, according to the Central News Agency (CNA).

CNA reported that the U.S. brokerage made the forecast following the lower-than-expected performance of Taiwanese companies in March.

Morgan Stanley forecast last week that the shipments in April-June from the top five ODMs will drop 5 percent year-on-year to 32.3 million units, a continued decline from the disappointing March number of 11.3 million, 2 percent below its expectations.

"June will be key to monitor for notebook momentum in the second quarter, as PC brands will launch new products by the end of the second quarter," Jasmine Lu, head of Taiwan research at Morgan Stanley, said in a research note last Monday.

Quanta Computer Inc. (廣達電腦) and Compal Electronics Inc. (仁寶電腦) are expected to outperform their competitors with an estimated 2 percent growth in shipments each, Lu said.

Shipments from the other three top-tier ODM laptop producers — Wistron Corp. (緯創資通), Inventec Corp. (英業達) and Pegatron Corp. (和碩聯合) — are forecast to remain flat or drop by as much as 27 percent year-on-year over the quarter, she added.

Shipments of Major Laptop Brands to Drop 7% in 2014

Global laptop computer shipments are expected to fall by 7 percent in 2014 amid the growing popularity of tablet computers and smartphones, according to local market research firm Digitimes Research.

The top five laptop computer brands — U.S.-based Hewlett-Packard Co., Lenovo Group in China, U.S.-based Dell Inc., Taiwan's Asustek Computer Inc. (華碩電腦) and Acer Inc. (宏碁電腦) — are holding a conservative attitude in March after seeing shipments decline in the first two months, Digitimes said in a research report.

PC market tracker International Data Corp. (IDC) holds a similar view, predicting earlier this week that shipments of portable PCs in the world market will likely drop 6.5 percent year-on-year to 166.8 million units this year, while those of desktop PCs are expected to fall 5.6 percent to 129.1 million units.

It said the global PC market will remain weak in 2014 as outlook in the emerging markets has deteriorated amid fierce competition from other devices such as smartphones and tablets.

The decline of global PC shipments is expected to continue into 2018, IDC said.

Concurrently, Canalys earlier said that global tablet shipments could surpass global laptop and desktop shipments sometime in 2014. Canalys says that globally, "tablet domination is set to continue," with slates accounting for 285 million shipments next year. Canalys expects that number to surge to 396 million units in 2017.

As part of this age of tablet dominance, Canalys says that they expect Android devices to make up 65 percent of the market this year, with 185 million devices.

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