Taiwan’s elections: change, continuity

Then, the flushing out theory has voters ridding themselves of legislators that they blame for lack of progress. “If DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh can distance himself from the current president Chen Shui-bian, he may minimize the negative effect to his campaign. While many ‘light green’ supporters were voting against Chen in the legislative elections, particularly in terms of economic and cross-strait policy, they may choose to vote for Frank Hsieh.”

Third, the pendulum effect recognizes the tendency in Taiwan to switch back and forth between political parties. However, given the presidential polls follow very closely on the heels of the legislative election, there may not be sufficient time for this trend to re-emerge.

Finally, the balancing effect suggests that Taiwan voters do not want to see any party take too much power, especially given the history of one-party rule during martial law. This would see voters deciding against the KMT. “Of course, with a divided government as was the case over the past eight years, a victory for Hsieh would represent no balance at all.” The upcoming remembrance of the Feb. 28 incident (2-28) will re-energize pan-green supporters and will put the KMT in a very uncomfortable position just before the election.

The U.N. referendum, said Yang, will remain an important issue. “This is a very emotional issue.” Yang believes, however, that it will be very difficult to pass. “If it does, it could be interpreted as representing de jure independence as it would have officially received the support of more than 50 percent of voters. This would also lead to a rise in Taiwan independence fundamentalism, while adding constraints on any winning president to deal with cross-strait relations.”

Beijing would then be forced to decide how to react after the 2008 Olympics. “For the past five to 10 years, the Chinese leadership has generally not concerned itself with promoting ‘reunification’ with Taiwan; rather it has sought to counter Taiwan independence.”

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