AmCham examines 2008 presidential election

In Wu’s view, the referenda were not “front and center.” He also found that there was a disproportionate amount of negative campaigning, but that external factors had a limited influence. “There was no pendulum or watermelon effect,” said Wu. “The electorate did not swing to the Democratic Progressive Party to balance the Kuomintang’s large legislative win, nor was it apparent that people opted to jump on the bandwagon by going with the winning party. This was really about a vote of disapproval in the DPP administration.”

“It was an important victory for Ma Ying-jeou and the KMT, and a great victory for Taiwan democracy.” After having been out of power for eight years, Wu believes that the KMT has become more responsive to and in tune with indigenous interests. After its lackluster performance, the DPP must now re-examine its priority and direction, and begin the ground work for a possible return to power. With a maturing democracy and another peaceful transfer of power, the Taiwanese have truly become masters of their own destiny. He stressed that, “No country has ever been made great by playing ethnic politics. I hope that politicians and political parties in Taiwan have learned their lesson.”

During the interim 60 days, Wu believes that the KMT will go from focusing on policy to personnel. “It must define its newness,” said Wu. Part of that effort will include delivery and discipline within the Legislative Yuan. “There must be strong coordination between the executive and legislative yuans and KMT central.”

The next 60 days will see the DPP go through intra-party soul searching to redefine its mission and direction. “It must leap from being cheerleaders to national leaders,” said Wu. Currently, the party relies too much upon campaigns and demonstrations. It must go beyond street tactics and legislative maneuvering to cultivate new ideas and leaders.

How will analysts be able to examine progress? “Look at the post-election rhetoric and actions, particularly with regard to Beijing’s rhetoric regarding Taiwan’s participation in the World Health Administration (WHA) assembly in May.” Another barometer will be administrative talks on tourism, direct flights and financial accounting. Wu, however, does not believe that talks between the island’s Straits Exchange Foundation and China’s Association for Relations across the Taiwan Strait will take place until the summer of 2009.

Wu based his reasons on two major factors: First, when Ma takes over, he will face “a full plate of issues,” not just the ones governing cross-strait ties. Second, the U.S. presidential election will be held in November with the inauguration of a new president in January 2009. At the earliest, the new U.S. leader will have a new assistant secretary of state for East Asian affairs in place by late Spring.

Regarding U.S.-Taiwan relations, Wu pointed out that the fundamentals remain sound and in place. “The foundation of mutual trust, however, needs nurturing.” While common values continue to sustain bilateral ties, Taiwan and the U.S. should “explore ways to operationalize common interests, perhaps by signing a free-trade agreement.”

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