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Updated Thursday, May 13, 2010 10:01 am TWN, By China Post News staff

Not much will change under China's next leaders: scholar

Dr Willy Lam, center, is thanked by ECCT CEO Freddie Hoeglund, left, and Nicholas V. Chen, right, Chairman of the ECCT's Greater China Business committee.(Courtesy of ECCT)

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Not much will change under China's next leaders: scholar

The cultivation of Chinese leaders is a blend of traditional Chinese values, perceived devotion to the common people, superior knowledge of the nature of the party and above all, loyalty. The CCP wants to avoid at all costs the rise of a Chinese Mikhail Gorbachev who may introduce any kind of reforms that could threaten its iron grip on power. Factionalism is still a strong factor behind promotions in the CCP such as with the Communist Youth League faction versus the so-called “Gang of Princelings”or descendants of heroes of the communist revolution. Xi is regarded as a candidate acceptable to all sides because of his lack of strong charisma or a large base in the party, not based on his achievements. As a loyal party member, Xi is expected to toe the party line and is unlikely to do anything radical while Hu Jintao remains commander in chief (until 2017).

Li Ke-qiang (born in 1955) is a protege of Hu Jintao, speaks good English and has had ample exposure to Western ideas. Li has recently been given more powers over macro-economic policies. Notably, he has had some success in fighting the real-estate bubble. Other weighty portfolios under his control are energy and food safety and reform of health care.

As to how relations with China will proceed under Xi Jinping's leadership, Lam believes that there may be some degree of affinity for Xi in Taiwan given his long official stint in Fujian province and his contacts among Taiwanese firms that invested in the province. However, like all other senior party leaders, he is a strong nationalist who believes that greater economic integration across the Taiwan Strait will eventually lead to formal de jure reunification. He therefore will likely continue with the policies of Hu Jintao regarding Taiwan and for at least the first five years is likely to focus mainly on improving business and economic ties.

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