Not much will change under China's next leaders: scholar

Leaders of China's communist party (CCP) are determined to keep their grip on power and will never allow a leader who is too liberal or progressive to assume power, said Dr. Willy Lam, Professor of Global Studies at Akita International University, Japan and Adjunct Professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

Having come through the financial crisis very well compared to its counterparts in the West, he added, the CCP is confident in its political and economic model. Therefore, it is unlikely that there will be any sweeping political or economic reforms in China within the fifth or sixth generations of leadership.

However, with a growing number of foreign-educated returnees gradually gaining more positions of influence in business and government institutions, it is possible that more significant changes could happen starting in the seventh generation in 2022 or beyond.

The fourth generation of Chinese leaders since the Mao Zedong period under President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao is entering its final stages and a new group of leaders will be taking over at the 18th Party Congress in 2012. While Hu will be stepping down as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CCP), the official leadership position, he is expected to retain his position as Chairman of the Central Military Commission, or commander-in-chief of the armed forces. In this position, Hu is expected to continue to wield considerable influence over policy and in deciding who will fill the top positions of authority in the sixth generation.

As for the fifth generation, current Vice President Xi Jinping, is widely expected to take over from Hu as President and General Secretary in 2012 while Vice Premier Li Keqiang will likely succeed Premier Wen Jiabao. Xi served mostly in Fujian province in his early career, and was later appointed party chief of neighboring Zhejiang province, before being appointed as the party's chief in Shanghai

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