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Updated Monday, January 28, 2008 0:00 am TWN, By Brian Asmus, Special to the China Post

Taiwan’s elections: change, continuity

TAIPEI, Taiwan -- While the Kuomintang has a very good chance at winning the March presidential election, don’t write off the Democratic Progressive Party just yet, said Philip Yang, a professor in the department of Political Science at National Taiwan University and highly respected political analyst.

Yang, the founder and administrator of the Taiwan Security Research Web site (www.taiwansecurity.org), spoke to a special American Chamber of Commerce luncheon held at the Landis Hotel in Taipei recently. “The DPP leadership is very good at politics, at campaigning,” added Yang.

If the KMT does win, he said, expectations will be high. “It will need to deliver, and fast. In 2008, he suggested, tourism could be opened to Chinese citizens. In 2009, mutual direct investment would be allowed. In 2010, perhaps, direct links could be implemented. “If the KMT does not act on these by then, 2011 will be too late for the results to influence the 2012 elections.”

The legislative election results, said Yang, indicated a vote of no confidence in the current government’s policy record, particularly with regard to economics and cross-strait issues. Other issues were corruption cases involving the government and families of high officials. “Turnout was 58 percent, but this was only 5 percent to 7 percent lower than in previous legislative elections.” In the presidential election, he noted, turnout is usually 78 percent to 80 percent.

The new electoral system is, to a large extent, following in the footsteps of similar reform that occurred in Japan in 1994. “Taiwan has now adopted a system of one-seat instead of multi-seat districts, with voters also able to express a preference for a party slate,” said Yang. “This benefits political parties with strong grass-roots bases and those with deep pockets; it also tends to result in policies that are less extreme.”

According to Yang, The DPP election strategy was flawed. “The negative public perception of the anti-Chiang Kai-shek and desinicization campaigns along with how the DPP went about choosing its candidates were largely to blame.” Rather than enabling popular figures to run, in many cases, the DPP leadership chose those with influence within the party.

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	AmCham President Richard Vuylsteke, right, poses with Philip Yang at a recent AmCham luncheon, at which Yang spoke about his views on the Mar. 22 presidential election. (Brian Asmus, Special to The China Post) Enlarge Photo


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