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September 25, 2017

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Barclay's raises forecast for GDP growth to 4.1%

TAIPEI, Taiwan -- British bank Barclays PLC and Singapore-based DBS Bank raised Taiwan's estimated GDP growth this year to 4.1 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively.

Barclays' estimate was 0.5 percentage points higher than its previous forecast. Taiwan's economy may perform even better in 2015, according to Barclays, which forecast that Taiwan will see 4.5 percent growth next year.

 Thanks to a recovering economy in the U.S. and China, both of which are Taiwan's major export countries, the island will see better improving export volume in the future, Barclays said.

 Although China has not been doing well in the service industry recently, other sectors have outperformed. For one, the real estate market has gradually stabilized, and Barclays predicts that China will see 7.4 percent GDP growth this year, which is not far from the 7.5-percent goal set by the government.

 Barclays said that China is likely to roll out quantitative easing (QE) measures in the second half of 2014. As the Chinese government turns its attention to carrying out economic reforms, the market has adopted an optimistic outlook. The stock market in China has outperformed other world markets.

 Barclays also shared its view of the European economy in its report. The European Union introduced sanctions to punish Russia's involvement in Ukraine, but the measures have also backfired and hurt the European economy. The bank downgraded the eurozone's economic growth to 0.9 percent this year and 1.4 percent next year, which represented drops of 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points.

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