Taiwan's '14 GDP growth forecast at 2.7 percent by ADB
April 2, 2014, 12:01 am TWN
MANILA -- Asia Development Bank (ADB) projected Tuesday that Taiwan's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 2.7 percent in 2014, beating last year's 2.1 percent growth, on the back of recovering exports.
The ADB forecast, however, was below Taiwan's Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics estimate of 2.82 percent growth, which was a revision of its earlier prediction of a 2.59 percent increase.
In 2015, Taiwan's GDP will improve further, growing 3.2 percent, the ADB said.
“As the global economic recovery gains momentum in 2014, external demand is expected to solidify,” the ADB said in the forecast. “Exports are likely to be the key driver of economic growth in the next two years.”
However, “the slowdown in the PRC would present significant downside risks for Taiwan's economy,” the ADB said. It said China's economic growth is expected to slow to 7.4 percent and 7.5 percent in 2014 and in 2015, respectively, from 7.7 percent in 2013. China is the largest buyer of Taiwan's goods.
Taiwan's inflation is expected to remain low but will trend slightly higher to between 1.1 percent and 1.3 percent in the 2014-2015 period, compared with 0.8 percent in 2013, the bank said.
Production costs in Taiwan are expected to rise with higher wages and stronger demand for inputs, while higher electricity rates and transportation fares could boost inflation, the ADB forecast.
It projected that Singapore's GDP will grow 3.9 percent in 2014 and 4.1 percent in 2015, while South Korea's will grow 3.7 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively. Hong Kong's GDP is expected to rise 3.5 percent in 2014 and 3.6 percent, in 2015, it said.
The economy in developing Asia is likely to grow 6.2 percent in 2014 and 6.4 percent in 2015, the ADB projected.