CEPD data suggest better outlook for Dec. 2012
The China PostBy Linger Liu--The Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) will release the business cycle reference indicators for December 2012 on Jan. 28.
January 27, 2013, 12:04 am TWN
According to a CNA forecast, the total score for monitoring indicators, which represents an average of a large range of industries, is likely to signal “yellow-blue.” This indicates a transitional stage between sluggish and stable market performance.
November 2012 was the third consecutive month where the total score for monitoring indicators was “yellow-blue,” the CEPD said. The CEPD releases the business cycle indicators every month.
Along with the monitoring indicators, the CEPD said three other indicators provided major reference cues: leading indicators, coincident indicators and lagging indicators.
Major Indicators Remain Positive
In November 2012, the leading indicators rose 0.8 percent from October. It seems likely these figures will again grow in December 2012, according to CNA.
The CEPD noted that according to an annualized six-month rate of change the leading indicators in November 2012 increased by 0.6 points to 5.8 percent.
The coincident indicators in November stood at 133.4, up by 0.4 percent from October 2012, said the CEPD. Thus CNA forecast that the indicator in December 2012 will have a positive cyclical movement from November.
The CEPD said the lagging indicators in November last year stood at 135.2, down by 0.1 percent from October 2012. Its trend-adjusted index decreased by 0.6 percent to 99.5.
Total Score in December 2012 May Rise
According to the CEPD, the monitoring indicator in November 2012 adjusted upward by 1 point to 19 from October of the same year. This came on the heels of a revision of the sales index of wholesale, retail and food services. The total score in November increased 1 point to 20, flashing the “yellow-blue” signal for the third consecutive month.
According to CNA, among the nine components, manufacturing sales gained 1 point and changed its individual light signal from “blue” to “yellow-blue.” The other eight components remained unchanged.
The overall score for December 2012 will likely be around 21 points and may retain a “yellow-blue” signal, said CNA.