Cautious optimism seen for Taiwan stocks in 2013
The China Post news staffTAIPEI, Taiwan -- Most analysts have expressed cautious optimism about Taiwan stocks for this year, with one of them predicting the TAIEX may reach a height of 9,000.
January 1, 2013, 12:59 am TWN
The experts based their optimism on the fact the TAIEX rose 8.87 percent in 2012, despite various disincentives including the stock gains tax and the European debt crisis.
On Friday last week the TAIEX closed for 2012 up 51.09 to 7,699.5. Markets closed yesterday and today in celebration of the new year.
As for this year, Wu Huo-sheng, chairman of Taishin Securities Investment Advisory Co., predicted the market will be whipsawed by two opposing forces: slowed economic recovery across the world, and easing monetary policies launched by global central banks.
“In 2013, markets across the world will be neither bullish nor bearish,” Wu said. “Rather, markets this year may be characterized by fish, which have dorsal and anal fins. In the same way, markets will be boxed between certain high and low points.”
According to him, Taiwan's economy this year will grow 3.4 percent, while profitability at enterprises is set to grow 24.7 percent. These figures combine to put Taiwan stocks' price-to-book ratio at 1.83 this year.
“Based on those figures, the TAIEX may hit a high of 9,063 in the fourth quarter, surpassing the so-called 8,500 Heavenly Cap,” Wu said.
Under the stock capital gains tax regulation, the tax will be collected only when the TAIEX hits above 8,500. It is therefore expected that the TAIEX will never go beyond that point.
Capital Securities, meanwhile, is less optimistic, saying the TAIEX this year will be boxed between 6,500 and 8,000.