Manufacturing sector won't see growth until Q2: TIER

Gordon Sun (孫明德), director of the TIER's Macroeconomic Forecasting Center, said the manufacturing sector will not see growth until the second quarter of 2013.

According to the TIER's composite manufacturing indicator, the sector has been flashing a “blue light,” which indicates contraction, since the beginning of the year.

The busiest period for manufacturers has already ended this year, Sun said, adding that the manufacturing sector, however, may see a slight increase due to seasonal growth in domestic consumption during Chinese New Year.

There are several uncertainties with regard to next year's first quarter due to the global economic slump, said the director. He explained that the issue of the U.S. fiscal cliff remains unsolved, and that the Japanese currency's significant depreciation may increase competition between Taiwan and Japan in terms of exports.

Sun said that the manufacturing sector will see progress, but not until the second quarter of next year.

He explained that demand in the green industry has been increasing, and that the indicators for petroleum and coal products have changed from blue lights into green lights, which indicates positive performance.

Industries related to electronic products have changed from a blue light into a yellow-blue light since March this year, which indicates sluggish growth.

Seasonal adjustments based on the increasing demand on exports in the U.S. and Europe during holidays create a better macroeconomic condition for export growth, Sun said.

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