“Vision 2020” – AmCham Asks Experts to Peer 12 Years Into the Future - II

Focus on Forging Positive Dynamics

By Bonnie Glaser, Senior Associate, Center for Strategic & International Studies.

U.S.-China-Taiwan relations must be transformed into a win-win-win situation to bring greater prosperity and security for Taiwan’s citizens, and a larger voice for Taiwan in international organizations.

Stabilizing cross-Strait relations will also require flexibility from Beijing on issues such as the “one China principle.” It is possible that by 2020 China’s fifth-generation leadership will have adopted a more pragmatic approach to relations with Taiwan.

If Beijing agrees to negotiate with Taipei on an equal footing, Taiwan should engage in talks aimed at establishing a framework for preserving cross-Strait stability. Taiwan would strive to eliminate the threat of attack from China, gain international space for Taiwan, work out confidence-building measures in the security arena, and establish arrangements for increased cross-Strait economic and political interactions. If differences over sovereignty and Taiwan’s status cannot be resolved, Taiwan could agree to postpone a final determination on reunification or independence for an agreed-upon period of time.

Once an agreement is signed, the cross-Strait relationship will be gradually transformed. It can be envisioned that by 2020, China’s missiles aimed at Taiwan could be dismantled, military hotlines and military exchanges programs could be initiated, and officials from Taiwan and China could work side by side in the U.N. and other international organizations.

Taiwan’s government will wish to adopt policies to realize its long-standing position identifying Taiwan as a gateway to China, removing barriers to cross-Strait flows of people, goods and services, and investment. Direct transport links would be established, ensuring that the island is tightly integrated into global business networks to bolster economic competitiveness. Tourism from China would be benefiting Taiwan’s economy and promoting greater cross-Strait interaction and understanding.

To achieve the above, Taiwan will have to cease the political wrangling among its political parties and party factions that has stalemated legislative action and prevented attainment of cross-party cooperation on policy toward the mainland.

By 2020, Taiwan’s ties with the United States should be devoid of the mistrust that has dominated the relationship since 2002. Taiwan will need to take steps to reassure the United States that it is not unilaterally seeking to change the status quo and is willing to shoulder a greater burden for its defense.

If Taiwan takes steps to create a framework for enduring cross-Strait peace and stability combined with measures to strengthen U.S. ties, it will significantly enhance the island’s security and promote economic prosperity for the Taiwanese people.

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