The military yesterday predicted China would have the ability to build a big enough air carrier fleet to gain sea dominance in the Taiwan Strait by 2015 in a bid to drum up support for a controversial billion-dollar U.S. arms deal.

Ministry of Defense analyst Lin Chin-ching said military assessments revealed China would be able to build its own aircraft carriers by 2008 to form an aircraft battle group in 2015 which would enable the Communist power to gain sea dominance in the stretch of sea between the island and the mainland.

Lin said the military also believed China would be able to build submarines that could launch an undersea blockade, attack the island and have nuclear weapons by 2015.

Lin said the number of new frigates owned by the Chinese navy and its combat capabilities will significantly surpass Taiwan’s in 2012.

“This will pose a great challenge,” he said.

Lin’s comments come as the legislature prepares to deliberate a special NT$480 billion budget for purchasing anti-submarine aircraft, patriot anti-missile systems and eight diesel-electric submarines.

A report presented by the military to the legislature said purchasing the 12 P-3C aircraft in the U.S. arms package would expand Taiwan’s undersea surveillance scope by more than 10-fold.

U.S. officials have said the billion dollar arms deal is vital for Taiwan’s friendship with America.

The special budget of NT$480 million awaiting passage in the Legislature was marked down from last year’s NT$610.8 billion. Last year, opposition politicians, who hold a majority in the Legislature, refused to approve of the NT$610.8 billion budget, saying the weapons were overpriced and the money would be better spent on social welfare.

The report said the military’s existing S-2T anti-submarine planes, which have been used by the military for the last 40 years, were old and out-of-date.

The existing S-2T anti-submarine planes could no longer meet Taiwan’s combat demands and the military desperately needed to replace the planes.

China in recent years has been on a shopping spree for Russian weapons and is developing its own arms.

The report noted China is developing Song-class submarine and nuclear-powered submarines. It has also purchased Kilo-class submarines from Russia, the report said.

While seven of the planes are expected to be delivered to Taiwan in 2009, the other five will be delivered in 2011, the report said.

It said the ministry originally reserved NT$53.04 billion in a special budget proposal for the 12 aircraft, but the amount has recently been adjusted to NT$45.04 billion following changes in the exchange rate and cutbacks in spending and coverage of some of the amount by the government’s regular budget.