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Taiwan’s shrinking international options The recent slight on Vice President Annette Lu by the cancellation of a visit to Boeing in Seattle shows just how far the reach of the mainland Chinese government stretches. Taiwan’s flag carrier, China Airlines, has ordered Boeing passenger jets to add to its fleet. The order was made at the urging, it is said, of the United States government. A few things need to be said. First the United States can’t force Taiwan to buy Boeing aircraft — it was Taiwan’s choice, but Taiwan has become so adept at mixing trade and politics that this might not be immediately obvious. Second, now that the planes have been ordered and payments made, canceling the order would do no good for Taiwan or China Airlines. The authorities have said that Taiwan makes its purchases on “commercial” considerations, so it is rather hypocritical to back out of deal — one might add, at enormous cost — to teach Boeing a lesson. Taiwan has recently applied for the 11th time to rejoin the United Nations. Taiwan will not be successful in its efforts to join — or rejoin — the United Nation’s until it can convince the People’s Republic of China to drop its opposition to this move. Of course, knowing that your cause is, at least in the short term, hopeless, does not mean that attempt should be abandoned — it is worth asserting Taiwan’s right to act on the international stage. With regard to another long-running international saga, Taiwan’s entry to the World Health Organization, it is harder to maintain that the entry campaign is “non-political” now that the Chen administration is talking of making the matter the subject of a nation-wide referendum. The best way for Taiwan to gain respect for its aim of gaining international breathing space is to stand on its own two feet. Most importantly, it must deter aggression from mainland China by maintaining sufficient forces so that it can blunt any attack from mainland China. Anti-submarine warfare is a very good way of reacting to a potential blockade or aggression by the mainland regime. Of course, this will cost money — but independence always does. Taiwan will always have to struggle for recognition, but Taiwan is no longer so obviously economically superior to the mainland that it can use its economic clout to win its battles — as the Boeing case proves. It is said that the U.S. is “morally and legally obligated” to defend Taiwan. This is debatable. Legally, under the Taiwan Relations Act which governs relations between the U.S. and Taiwan, the U.S. is obligated to sell Taiwan the weapons to defend itself — not to come to Taiwan’s aid if it is attacked. The U.S. expects the defense of Taiwan to come primarily from Taiwan itself — in other words, self defense. As for the “moral” aspect, it is likely that Taiwan’s friends in the U.S. would not allow mainland China to attack Taiwan without the U.S. responding, but the U.S. is only “morally” obliged to defend its own interests, which may or may not coincide with Taiwan’s interests. The ability to defend a nation is a basic attribute of sovereignty. In short, if Taiwan wants to gain international respect and leverage, it must assure its own defense and prove that it is a sovereign power that can be taken seriously. |
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