The Federal Reserve Bank of New York projected a year ago that the Treasury Department might have to pay US$3.96 billion on the guarantees if unemployment hit 9.5 percent, the panel said in a Nov. 6 report. The jobless rate rose to 10.2 percent in October, the Labor Department said last week.

The government hashed out the guarantees over a weekend in November 2008 to help shore up confidence in New York-based Citigroup and head off a run on the bank's deposits. The New York Fed analysis, which wasn't previously disclosed, raises questions about whether the Treasury Department and regulators were tough enough in the negotiations, said Joshua Rosner, an analyst at investment research firm Graham Fisher & Co.