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What to possibly expect as Obama heads for China In just over a week, U.S. President Barack Obama will begin his first visit to mainland China as head of state. According to reports, President Obama is expected to take part in a “town hall”-style activity where he will interact directly with students and youths in Shanghai. Obama is also expected to personally tour the U.S. pavilion at the World Expo and meet with American businesspeople in Shanghai. He is then expected to visit the capital Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Hu Jintao. Like his predecessors, Obama will probably also deliver a speech at Tsinghua University or Peking University. Given the tremendous interaction between the United States and mainland China in recent years, the time is ripe for a summit meeting between Obama and Hu. Following last year's global financial crisis, these two countries have become even more interdependent upon each other, with mainland China financing U.S. debt and U.S. imports fueling the mainland's economic development. This phenomenon and its effects on the global economy have recently been dubbed the rise of “G-2” or “Chimerica” by some observers. Given Obama's connections to traditionally protectionist groups such as labor unions, this trip should help persuade Obama that free trade brings about more benefits than protectionism. On the other hand, Obama's unprecedented celebrity status in the region will provide him a unique opportunity to communicate directly with ordinary people through his speeches and activities. While he is in Beijing, President Obama will surely be presented with mainland China's usual demands when it comes to policy on Taiwan. Beijing will ask Obama to make statements recognizing Beijing's “one China” stance, which claims that Taiwan is a part of the People's Republic of China. The mainland will also surely repeat its demand that Washington cease arms sales to Taipei. Obama will probably also be asked to make a public statement opposing Taiwan independence. For many years, Beijing has sought the signing of a joint communique addressing these highly sensitive issues. But successive U.S. presidents, ranging from George H.W. Bush to Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, have politely declined to sign any joint communiques or make highly sensitive statements. President Obama would be wise to continue the previous policy of maintaining the status quo and refraining from signing a joint communique. Like other presidents in the past, Obama can repeat the diplomatic language of the three communiques signed in the 1970s and 1980s and the Taiwan Relations Act. When asked to comment about Taiwan matters in public, Obama can conveniently summarize these documents and stay out of trouble. He should also repeat the longstanding U.S. policy of encouraging Taipei and Beijing to resolve their disputes peacefully. One China expert, Bonnie Glaser of the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, was quoted by the United Daily News as predicting that Beijing might ask Obama to recognize China's “core interests,” a new code phrase meaning China's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan, --injiang and Tibet. Glaser told the paper that Obama's best tactic for dealing with such a request would be to carefully use the neutral word “acknowledge” instead of “recognize,” such as by saying the U.S. “acknowledges” Beijing's core interests. This would be taking a cue from the Shanghai Communique signed during the 1972 visit to Shanghai by then-U.S. President Richard Nixon. In that document, the U.S. side stated that it “acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China.” By using “acknowledge” instead of “recognize,” Washington delicately avoided endorsement of Beijing's “one China” policy or taking sides in the sovereignty dispute between Beijing and Taipei. Although it would be best if Obama refrained from addressing the “core interests” subject at all, use of neutral terms such as “acknowledge” would indeed be wise if there is no way around making such a statement during this trip. Some observers in Taiwan are fearful that the new American leader might be too accommodating to Beijing's requests. However, President Obama is a very talented public speaker and has proven his familiarity with the Taiwan issue in the past. The situation in the Taiwan Strait today is markedly different from how things were when Bill Clinton and George W. Bush visited mainland China in the past. Back then, cross-strait negotiations had been called off and tensions were rising between Taipei and Beijing. But today, Taipei and Beijing are actively negotiating with each other and relations are warming rapidly. Because of this, Obama would be wise to merely encourage these cross-strait interactions while refraining from making any major policy statements in favor of one side or the other. It is even possible that Obama might make positive statements about Taiwan and the development of democracy here while interacting with his hosts in mainland China. |
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