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Greek PM faces tough fight for 3rd mandate

Thursday, October 1, 2009
By ELENA BECATOROS, AP


ATHENS, Greece — Greece's beleaguered prime minister faces a tough fight to win a third mandate in early elections Sunday, with voters widely expected to reject his conservative party in favor of the opposition socialists.

Whoever wins, Greece will have the heir to a long-running political dynasty at its helm once more. Costas Karamanlis and socialist PASOK party leader George Papandreou are both scions of the two rival families that have governed Greece for 32 of the 47 years of democratic governance since 1955, excluding the 1967-74 dictatorship.

Karamanlis called an election just halfway through his second four-year term in a risky bid to shore up support for tough economic measures, saying he needed renewed public support to push through unpopular reforms that are essential for the country's economy in a time of financial crisis.

But the popularity of the 53-year-old nephew of late conservative Prime Minister Constantine Karamanlis has been severely eroded by a series of financial scandals and exacerbated by a worsening economy as his New Democracy party struggled with a single-seat majority in the 300-member Parliament.

"It was a toxic combination that has taken place over the last 12, 14 months," said political analyst Anthony Livanios. "It was the economic crisis, number one; it was the slim majority in the parliament, number two; and number three, the scandals that have created a negative impact of his government, of the Karamanlis government to the public opinion."

Arguably the most damaging of the scandals was a state land-swap deal with a powerful Greek Orthodox monastery, in which investigators found high-value state property was traded for cheaper monastery land at a cost to the state of about €100 million. The scandal forced the resignation of two ministers, including one of Karamanlis' closest aides.

The government also came under criticism for its handling of severe riots last December sparked by the fatal police shooting of a teenager and, more recently, a major wildfire that burned the outskirts of the capital this summer.

The last opinion polls published on Sept. 18 before a pre-election ban went into effect showed the Papandreou's opposition PASOK party ahead with a 6-7 point lead. Papandreou, 57, is a former foreign minister whose father and grandfather were both prime ministers.

Karamanlis' decision to call snap elections "was a very high-risk move," Livanios said. "But he thought that he had to do that because he wants a strong mandate in order to (implement) an austere economic policy."

With a budget deficit that could reach 8 percent of economic output this year — well over the European Union ceiling of 3 percent — and a public debt set to surpass 100 percent of GDP, Karamanlis has pledged to slash spending, crack down on tax evasion and freeze salaries, pensions and public sector hiring.

"I know that I am not pleasant at this moment," Karamanlis said during a televised debate last week. "I know, as I am told, (I am) shouldering a political cost, but I know what the national interest is and believe deeply that this land truly has a much better future as long as we make the right decisions now."

He said Greece faces "two difficult years, during which we must reduce public spending, effectively tackle tax evasion and pass structural reforms."

But Papandreou, whose party — founded by his father, Andreas Papandreou — made its worst electoral showing in 30 years in 2007, is taking a drastically different stance.

He insists the only way to boost the Greek economy is through a stimulus package, and has promised up to €3 billion (about $4.4 billion), pledging to increase infrastructure investment and give public sector employees above-inflation pay rises.

"We need to first jump-start the economy for a short period, to give us the breathing-space to make the changes and then move on to a different type of economy within the next few years," he told the AP in an interview.

Karamanlis has dismissed the plan as irresponsible, saying the socialists' promises will cost the country more than €10 billion.

While PASOK was clearly ahead in opinion polls, it is uncertain whether the party will be able to sustain a big enough lead for a clear parliamentary majority. If no party wins enough seats to form a government and cannot agree to form a coalition with a smaller party, a second round will have to be held.

However, a protracted political crisis would further harm the economy, and analysts say there is likely to be little public appetite for a repeat election.

"Chances are that the October 4 election will have a clear-cut majority," Livanios said. "The Greek people cannot afford political uncertainty for the next two months because this will have a tremendously negative impact on the economy."

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