The Kuomintang may lose Hualien, Hsinchu, Taitung, Taoyuan and Yilan.

Voters will go to the polls to elect 17 mayors and county magistrates in December, but the ruling party can't field electable magistrates in the five counties.

Wu Poh-hsiung, Kuomintang chairman, gave Yeh Chin-chuan, minister of health, an ultimatum to accept a draft for the magistracy election in Hualien.

Yeh is still dithering, while Kuomintang Fu Kun-cheng vows to run, though he couldn't be nominated. Fu has been convicted of insider trading and sentenced to ten years in prison.

The Kuomintang bans any member convicted from running for public office.

In the county of Hsinchu, Kuomintang lawmaker Chiu Ching-chun has been nominated, but the party may be split because Chiu Yung-chin, the outgoing magistrate, supports his county council speaker Chang Pih-chin, who is running as an independent.

Taitung's incumbent magistrate, Kuang Lih-chen, has never stopped running for re-election, though Kuomintang lawmaker Huang Chien-ting was nominated.

Rivalries for the nomination of a candidate for a legislative by-election in Yunlin have split the ruling party, who now is not sure whether its candidate for magistrate can canvass enough votes to defeat his Democratic Party rival.

Two contenders, one of them Wu's son, are battling for the nomination for magistrate of Taoyuan. John Wu, the legislator son of the outgoing Kuomintang chairman, may lose the nomination to Taoyuan county council speaker Tseng Chung-yi, who may bolt from the party to continue to run.

What the Kuomintang worries about is the Kang Shih-ju effect.

Kang bolted from the party to run as an independent in a legislative by-election for Miaoli last March 15. He won.

The election in Yilan is a different story.

Lu Kuo-hua, the incumbent Kuomintang magistrate of Yilan, is seeking re-election. But the opposition party that ruled Yilan uninterrupted until Lu was elected in 2005 is more likely to win come December.

Its nominee, Lin Tsung-hsien, has more than a 50-50 chance to defeat an increasingly unpopular Lu Kuo-hua, DPP sources said.

The opposition party, which settled the rivalries in the county of Tainan, will either field strong candidates or work with Kuomintang defectors in Hualien, Taitung, Taoyuan and Yunlin.

“The chances are,” one DPP central office source said, “we'll be able to retain control of all three counties and wrest control of four more from the Kuomintang.”

There is no difficulty retaining control of Pingtung, Yunlin and Chiayi. No magistracy elections in Tainan and Kaohsiung.

The county of Kaohsiung will be merged with the city of Kaohsiung to make a new, expanded special municipality. Both are now under DPP's control.

The city and county of Tainan will be merged to make another special municipality. The opposition party controls both.

Mayors of special municipalities will be elected at the end of next year.