But when that indicator is automobile sales, and that industry has been slogging through its worst run in decades, a 28 percent slide somehow doesn't seem that bad.

In June, Americans bought 859,847 cars and light trucks according to data released by automakers on Wednesday and compiled by AutoData Corp. That's the smallest monthly sales drop since September. And although the industry hasn't seen a sales increase in nearly two years, it was enough for auto executives to -- ever so cautiously -- begin to spot green shoots amid the rusted steel.

"The tide seems to have shifted in recent weeks," said Jim Farley, head of marketing and communications at Ford Motor Co., the only American automaker not to have taken government bailout funding.

The second-largest U.S. automaker's sales declined just 11 percent from a year earlier. That's by far the best performance of any major automaker, a performance Farley attributed to the quality of its new vehicles rather than any gains from disgruntled former customers of bankrupt General Motors Corp. and Chrysler.

And although GM and Toyota Motor Corp. saw more substantial dips, of 33 percent and 32 percent, both enjoyed improvement over recent months' dismal results, which rank among the weakest in their histories. That prompted executives at the two automakers to suggest that the worst is officially over.

"We feel pretty strongly that the bottom was hit earlier in the year," said Mark LaNeve, head of sales, service and marketing at GM, who fingered February, when sales declined 41.4 percent.

With spring finally here along with the long-anticipated bankruptcies of Chrysler and GM, even the analysts seemed ready to call the end of bad times. "It is unlikely things will get any worse," said Jesse Toprak head of industry analysis at Edmunds.com.

Not that June was all that great.Chrysler Group, now controlled by Italian automaker Fiat, saw its sales fall 42 percent in a month where it forcibly shut down 789 of its dealers. Honda Motor Co. saw its sales decline 29 percent compared with June of last year. Nissan Motor Co. and Hyundai Motor Co. managed to look downright respectable because they each bagged sales declines below 25 percent.

Ford and Toyota, calling a recovery, even bragged of plans to boost production in the third quarter, while several companies mentioned improved consumer credit despite the fact that it's nearly impossible to get a car loan with a credit score below 720 these days.

Optimism aside, the market continues to hover far below what would have been called depressed levels just a year ago. On an annualized basis, industry sales in June hit a level of 9.7 million units, according to Autodata, 40 percent below the industry's sales rate for most of this decade.

Moreover, sales for domestic and import brands remained very weak in several key regions. Chief among them has been California, the largest U.S. auto market. With its ongoing housing crisis and high unemployment, even Toyota, practically the home team in Southern California, had trouble selling cars in the Golden State last month.

"The overall industry is doing worse in California than anywhere else in the country," said Bob Carter, Toyota's U.S. general manager.

A year ago, the industry was on pace to sell 13.6 million vehicles. But the soaring price of gasoline, which peaked in July 2008, hammered vehicle sales, prompting industry executives to predict impending disaster.

Those predictions were on target, and the last 12 months have been the most brutal, in terms of sales, that the industry has faced in at least three decades. For all of 2008, sales declined 18 percent. Through the first five months of this year, they were down 37 percent.

Now the same executives are hoping that a fresh set of predictions will prove as prophetic: Automakers are calling for improved sales in the third and fourth quarters that would pull the full year results up to about 10.5 million cars and light trucks sold.