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Time for thawing Moscow-U.S. ties Not since the end of the Cold-War and the collapse of Communism have Russo-American relations had the same amount of opportunity to change as they do now. After infamously looking into Vladimir Putin's eyes and stating, “I was able to get a sense of his soul.” President Bush subsequently implemented a highly confrontational and ultimately unwise set of policies when dealing with the former super power. Abrogating the ABM Treaty that had been designed to prevent a renewed nuclear arms race, the Bush II White House decided to pursue missile defense technology. The crucial yet seldom mentioned point here is that almost all of this technology to date simply doesn't work thus nullifying any arguments by its over-jingoistic supporters. As of yet, it has only succeeded in both failing to provide a credible shield while also ratcheting up relations both with Moscow and Beijing. Unfortunately as the national security of both of these countries' are on the line, neither of them has the luxury to believe reports concerning the many failures of the missile shield. They have to assume that it either works or will soon work and that the threat from such a shield would at least reduce their nuclear deterrent or at worst nullify it. Although many Western policymakers don't really consider it to be a threat to Moscow, the Russians certainly do, so much so that they have even considered reactivating some of their warehoused weapons while also developing new launchers and ICBMs like the RS-24. In addition to the specious missile shield, the outgoing administration in an ill-planned effort to contain Tehran also recently stationed interceptor systems on Russia's doorstep, the formerly communist countries of Poland and Czech Republic. Such actions in Moscow's mind only confirm their suspicions that the U.S. plans to limit the Kremlin's ability to employ its nuclear arsenal under the guise of protecting a nuclear armed Europe from a third rate and so far non-nuclear Iran. The incoming Obama administration has the opportunity to address unwarranted Russian fears all the while securing a better deal on Iranian enrichment. As a result of internal lobbies and other political realities at home, killing missile defense is a virtual impossibility. Nonetheless, it could certainly be restructured and diluted to the extent that it doesn't prompt the Russians or Chinese to increase their arsenals. In terms of addressing Iran's ambitions the present hostility will only guarantee the eventual production of Persian nuclear arms. Despite all of Ahmadinejad's fierce rhetoric, he in fact has little or no power over the country's nuclear program, this instead is controlled by the Mullahs. Historically, Russo-Iranian relations have been sour as both capitals have fought several wars over the last 200 years all the while also competing for influence in Central Asia. The principle reason as to why they have been so close in recent years is because Moscow seeks to stymie the U.S. in the Middle East while also containing perceived potential American military interventions designed to thwart Iran. Their alliance and Iran's nuclear ambitions are simultaneously based on the presumption of US hostility. Thus, the next administration should seek to remove this factor from the equation by re-establishing relations once Ahmadinejad is gone. Establishing ties and working on areas of mutual interest would both reduce Iran's incentives to acquire nuclear weapons while also help de-stabilize the highly vulnerable Moscow-Tehran entente. Russia aside from holding back U.S. designs on Tehran has no reason as to want another nuclear neighbor on its Southern flank. It already has to worry about the other seven nuclear powers in Eurasia as it is and adding Iran to the list, a traditionally hostile power that would challenge its plans in Central Asia while promoting religious militancy definitely stands against the Kremlin's strategic interests. Russia has already offered to guarantee U.S. access to radar sites in Southern Russia as a possible counter to the installation of interceptors in Eastern Europe. The new administration should seek to modify this offer. U.S./Russian joint interceptor installations could be installed in Southern Russia thereby providing Europe with quicker action against any Iranian missiles, alleviating the tension over interceptors in Eastern Europe all the while providing a united front against Iranian nuclear ambitions and most importantly getting everyone out of this Cold War mentality. |
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