www.ChinaPost.com.tw


Polar politics heats up over security - PART III

Monday, November 10, 2008
By Peter Brookes, Special to The China Post


Denmark, which lays claim to the Arctic through its possession of self-governing Greenland, also is getting in the race. Copenhagen boldly claims the Lomonosov Ridge is a geological extension of the large island land mass, which in reality is more white than green. But conflicting claims are not restricted to the Russians, who are not likely to be intimidated by Danish claims.

The Danes also are sparring with the Canadians over ownership of tiny Hans Island, a rocky Arctic outcrop, which both countries claim. The Danes are not the only ones on the move in Scandinavia. Norway, an energy giant, plans to spend more than US$100 million on a new electronic surveillance system to monitor Russian actions in the north, according to a Defense News report in June.

Reminiscent of the Cold War and its role as a front-line NATO state in it, Norway will establish radar stations and open-water monitoring facilities in the Barents and Norwegian seas, according to Oslo. The proposed surveillance system is a response not only to Russia's re-invigorated interest in the Arctic, but also to Moscow's heightened military activity on the neighboring Kola Peninsula and surrounding environs.

The Americans, who lay claim to the Arctic through Alaska, also are paying more attention to the region. For instance, in May, the U.S. military launched its annual Northern Edge series of exercises in and around Alaska. Over a two-week period, the exercise involved more than 5,000 personnel from units from as far away as Hawaii and Japan, as well as more than 100 aircraft and a number of U.S. Navy ships. The Russians, not surprisingly, highlighted the annual Alaska exercise this year, using it as a rhetorical foil for justifying their own military build-up in the Arctic. Although always tight-lipped about its operations, the American silent service is believed to have held submarine exercises with the British last year in northern waters, no doubt to test itself in the Arctic's changing environment.

The diminished ice coverage certainly will change the strategic situation in the Arctic region, long a hopeful safe harbor for Russian fleet ballistic missile submarines in their cat-and-mouse game with adversary attack submarines and anti-submarine aircraft.

While seemingly natural allies on Arctic issues, Canada and the U.S. actually dispute some territory in the Beaufort Sea, known as the Wedge, as well as the navigational status of the Northwest Passage. Washington views the Northwest Passage as international waters, while Ottawa sees it as an internal waterway. Canada has strongly objected to U.S. submarine transits of the passage, which has become a cause celebre in the Canadian press from time to time.Despite this, in August, a Canadian research ship, Louis S. St. Laurent, and an American Coast Guard cutter, Healy, conducted joint exploration of the northern sea bed, working to develop a three-dimensional map of the sea floor.

So, while all the countries concerned have promised to allow diplomacy, science and international law to resolve how the potentially rich Arctic should be divvied up in terms of sovereignty, it is not clear it will end up that way. For instance, while the cold front that has descended on East-West relations over the Russia-Georgia conflict may not last forever, issues that appear nongermane certainly could get in the way of bilateral or multilateral cooperation. Indeed, even before the Georgia dust-up, an expert group expressed concern about the possibility of the Arctic becoming increasingly militarized as the global demand for energy and raw materials skyrockets, overwhelming well-intentioned diplomatic efforts.

In its report, the USGS called the Arctic region "the largest unexplored prospective area for petroleum remaining on Earth." With little reason to doubt it, that assertion will not be ignored by the major powers that ring the Arctic. With the surge in energy prices being driven by sluggish new production, continuing limits on global refining capability, jittery energy markets and rapidly increasing demand from the likes of India and China, countries are likely to hedge their bets in the Arctic.

U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Thad Allen, during a recent visit to Alaska, said in a radio interview: "For the last 20 years, the conventional view for policymakers in Washington is that any activity in the Arctic is basically related to science."

Those days are gone -- probably for good. Indeed, Washington is expected to shortly issue a presidential national security directive on the Arctic -- arguably the first major policy statement on the issue in more than a decade.

But it will take more than a presidential policy statement to address the challenges of the Arctic. More resources will have to be devoted to the task, including increasing the number of U.S. ice breakers, which stands at a paltry three superannuated ships.

The U.S. has a lot at stake in the Arctic. Now is not the time for getting a case of cold feet in projecting American power to protect and advance our national interests in the north.

Peter Brookes is a Heritage Foundation senior fellow and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense who also served in the Navy, with the CIA and on Capitol Hill.

Copyright © 1999 – 2009 The China Post.
Back to Story