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Polar region security issues heat up -- PART II

Sunday, November 9, 2008
By Peter Brookers, Special to The China Post


In August 2007, two Russian deep-submergence research vehicles, Mir-1 and -2, planted a titanium flag on the sea bed near the North Pole at a depth of nearly 14,000 feet, claiming for Moscow a territory between the undersea Mendeleev and Lomonosov ridges the size of France, Germany and Italy combined. While some derided the flag-planting as a little more than a geopolitical stunt, the Russians are likely serious about their claims, considering their quest for oil and gas rights — indeed, energy hegemony across the globe. (Russia is the world’s No. 1 producer of natural gas and No. 2 exporter of oil. Some experts believe Russian oil reserves have peaked and will be depleted by 2030.)

In July, Moscow announced it would send its Northern Fleet Navy, based at Severomorsk on the Kola Peninsula, to patrol Arctic waters — perhaps, the first time it has done so since the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. Indeed, it was reported in late September that a Northern Fleet submarine had completed a 30-day transit under the Arctic ice, surfacing off the Kamchatka Peninsula in the northern Pacific Ocean.

Some experts are expecting more than a few new submarines and surface ships for Russia’s once-mighty Kola Peninsula, including, perhaps, another run at developing aircraft carriers that could be operating in northern climes in the out-years. The shipbuilding program will not include just warships, but also as many as 14 new ice breakers in the coming years. In fact, Russia commissioned the world’s largest nuclear-powered ice breaker last year, 50 Years of Victory, bringing the number of nuclear ice-crushing ships available for Arctic duty to seven.

The Russian Navy has tried to downplay its more muscular stance in the Arctic, insisting it is just part of its natural re-emergence as a great naval power. That re-emergence will be bolstered by a 30 percent increase in Russia’s defense budget next year. In a throwback to the Cold War, Moscow already has its Long Range Aviation operating widely, including in the Arctic, using Tu-95 reconnaissance and Tu-142 anti-submarine aircraft from bases in Russia’s northern and far eastern military districts.

In addition to its military maneuvers, in September, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev instructed the drafting of a new state policy on the Arctic, including a law expressing Moscow’s view of the country’s northern border. The Kremlin also has sent scientific exhibitions to the Arctic to survey the area and collect evidence, including soil samples, to support Moscow’s claim to the Lomonosov Ridge as an extension of Russia’s continental shelf. But the Russians are not the only ones gearing up for possible Arctic action.

Canada, for one, is not standing idly by when it comes to the Arctic. Canadian scientists are building their own case for claims on the Lomonosov Ridge — and a second sub-surface mountain range in the West, called the Alpha Ridge, in the Beaufort Sea. In support of this, Ottawa also has announced plans to build six to eight medium-sized ships, capable of operating in ice 3 feet thick, to conduct Arctic patrols. Canada has one large and five light- to medium-sized icebreakers; all are reaching the end of their service lives. Some say the mid-sized ships may not be up to the task, instead calling for larger ships for the job of looking after Canada’s so-called “High North.” One skeptical Canadian politician said the new ships are more aptly called “slush-breakers.”

But that is not all. In August, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced plans to establish a deep-sea port on Baffin Island to support Canadian air and sea patrols in the region, especially the new-construction ships. Ottawa also plans to build a new winter fighting school at a base on Resolute Bay in the Northwest Passage, 400 miles south of the North Pole, affirming that Canada plans a growing — and long-term — presence in the Arctic.

While Canada reportedly has fewer than 200 soldiers and 1,500 volunteer indigenous Inuit rangers operating in the Arctic, providing security to more than 1.5 million square miles of Canadian territory, large-scale, joint exercises, such as the Nanook series, have increased. The commander of Joint Task Force North, which kicked off Nanook ‘08 in late September, said: “Our purpose is to exert sovereignty, demonstrate sovereignty and security, but also learn how to live off the land and learn more about the operating environment here in the north.”

A Canadian commission also recently recommended Ottawa establish a surveillance network to monitor activities in the Arctic as well as build a new research station near the Northwest Passage. Ottawa also wants recognition of its sovereignty over the Northwest Passage, the once-mythical route that offers the quickest and most economic waterway between Asia and Europe, eliminating the need for, and limitations imposed by, the Panama Canal. The route, which by some estimates might be navigable year-round by 2050, would shorten shipping distances between the two continents by more than 2,000 miles, cutting costs and travel time for sea cargo.

Peter Brookes is a Heritage Foundation senior fellow and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense who also served in the Navy, with the CIA and on Capitol Hill.

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