Taiwan was very grateful for the two similar battle groups President Bill Clinton sent to its waters in 1996.

Lee Teng-hui was the first president of the Republic of China to visit the United States in June 1995. He visited his alma mater Cornell University to deliver an Olin lecture on Taiwan's experience in democracy. That visit so antagonized Beijing that his re-election in the subsequent year was considered an anathema to its supreme cause of Chinese reunification.

Thereupon, the People's Liberation Army started test-firing surface-to-surface missiles in waters close to major ports in north and south Taiwan on March 8, 1996. The missile tests, which lasted eight days, were the first of a series of war games to intimidate the electorate in Taiwan ready to vote over their first head of state less than three weeks away. On March 12, a nine-day maneuver, involving naval warships and air squadrons, got under way in an area of the Taiwan Strait only 70 kilometers from the Pescadores or Penghu. Six days later, on March 18, the Chinese began another eight-day exercise off the coast of mainland China. These war games involved ground, air, and naval forces in a simulated amphibious operation against Taiwan. President Clinton, concerned about the military threat to Taiwan, sent the two naval task forces to the waters near Taiwan to show American support. It was not exactly a military confrontation between the United States and the People's Republic of China, but Beijing under Jiang Zeming's rule backed off. The presidential election was held as scheduled, and Lee won, garnering 54 percent of the vote.

There isn't any such emergency across the Taiwan Strait. Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang was elected president on March 22. In the lead-up to the election, the People's Liberation Army did not test-fire any cruise missiles, lobbing them across Taiwan into the Pacific Ocean. Nor were any military exercises held. In fact, Beijing took caution not to make mention of anything that might be construed as an intimidation to the people of Taiwan. Chinese President Hu Jintao tried what he could to avoid being another Jiang Zemin. Jiang, Hu's predecessor and mentor, helped Lee outpoll his rivals overwhelmingly in 1996 by trying to intimidate the voters in Taiwan.Moreover, Hu, who refrained from making any remarks that might help Ma's opponent Frank Hsieh, talked with President George W. Bush over the phone after the March 22 election and they were agreed that dialogue should be resumed between China and Taiwan on the basis of what is known as the consensus of 1992. Under the tacit agreement, which is a sine qua non for the resumption of talks across the Strait, both Beijing and Taipei acknowledge there is but one China, whose connotations or definition can be orally and individually expressed. The dialogue between the Straits Exchange Foundation in Taipei and its Chinese counterpart Association for Relations across the Taiwan Strait -- disrupted in 1999 after Lee had broached his "special state-to-state relationship" between Taiwan and China -- cannot be resumed because President Chen refuses to accept that precondition. But Ma, the president-elect, is more than willing to get the talks underway without delay.

So why are the three American naval task forces staying near Taiwan until the day when Ma will be sworn in as president? Who are they guarding against?

The logical conclusion is that the Americans are afraid President Chen may do something extraordinary to prevent Ma's inauguration. Frank Hsieh attacked Ma in a smear campaign for carrying a "green card," a certificate of permanent residence in the United States with which the latter might flee Taiwan in case "something very wrong" occurred across the Strait. Campaigning for Hsieh, Chen declared repeatedly he could not "transfer power" to a green card holder. The United States wants to ensure a "peaceful transition of power" in Taiwan. Washington knows Chen is an extraordinary man capable of doing anything to survive his certain trial for corruption. His first lady was indicted for corruption in 2006, charged with borrowing invoices and receipts from relatives and friends to claim an NT$18.4 million reimbursement from a public fund under her husband's control for the conduct of "affairs of state." She is on trial. Chen was not indicted, as Taiwan's president is immune to criminal prosecution, but was regarded as a co-defendant, who will be formally charged on leaving office. The first couple will stand trial together after May 20 and the chances are that they will be both convicted. He is likely to wind up in prison like Chun Do Huan, a former president of South Korea.

The Americans are overly cautious. Chen Shui-bian may try, but cannot provoke China into attacking Taiwan to give him an excuse to declare war and stay in office. Nor can he concoct a "coup d'etat" to remain in power. Taiwan is a democracy where the rule of law prevails. No colonels would listen, when told to lead their troops to overthrow a government. And it is impossible for the couple to flee like Fernando and Imelda Marcos of the Philippines. The Filipino first couple couldn't have fled without the help of Uncle Sam.