Yang, the founder and administrator of the Taiwan Security Research Web site (www.taiwansecurity.org), spoke to a special American Chamber of Commerce luncheon held at the Landis Hotel in Taipei recently. "The DPP leadership is very good at politics, at campaigning," added Yang.

If the KMT does win, he said, expectations will be high. "It will need to deliver, and fast. In 2008, he suggested, tourism could be opened to Chinese citizens. In 2009, mutual direct investment would be allowed. In 2010, perhaps, direct links could be implemented. "If the KMT does not act on these by then, 2011 will be too late for the results to influence the 2012 elections."

The legislative election results, said Yang, indicated a vote of no confidence in the current government's policy record, particularly with regard to economics and cross-strait issues. Other issues were corruption cases involving the government and families of high officials. "Turnout was 58 percent, but this was only 5 percent to 7 percent lower than in previous legislative elections." In the presidential election, he noted, turnout is usually 78 percent to 80 percent.

The new electoral system is, to a large extent, following in the footsteps of similar reform that occurred in Japan in 1994. "Taiwan has now adopted a system of one-seat instead of multi-seat districts, with voters also able to express a preference for a party slate," said Yang. "This benefits political parties with strong grass-roots bases and those with deep pockets; it also tends to result in policies that are less extreme."

According to Yang, The DPP election strategy was flawed. "The negative public perception of the anti-Chiang Kai-shek and desinicization campaigns along with how the DPP went about choosing its candidates were largely to blame." Rather than enabling popular figures to run, in many cases, the DPP leadership chose those with influence within the party. What are the implications for the presidential election? According to Yang, the watermelon theory suggests that voters will jump on the bandwagon by voting for the party that they think has the best chance of winning. "The media and local factions may choose to cheer for the winning side." To what extent the Kuomintang can benefit from this is open to question. Yang suggested that it might be for precisely this reason that the KMT leadership has deliberately adopted a low profile despite winning by such wide margins.

Then, the flushing out theory has voters ridding themselves of legislators that they blame for lack of progress. "If DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh can distance himself from the current president Chen Shui-bian, he may minimize the negative effect to his campaign. While many 'light green' supporters were voting against Chen in the legislative elections, particularly in terms of economic and cross-strait policy, they may choose to vote for Frank Hsieh."

Third, the pendulum effect recognizes the tendency in Taiwan to switch back and forth between political parties. However, given the presidential polls follow very closely on the heels of the legislative election, there may not be sufficient time for this trend to re-emerge.

Finally, the balancing effect suggests that Taiwan voters do not want to see any party take too much power, especially given the history of one-party rule during martial law. This would see voters deciding against the KMT. "Of course, with a divided government as was the case over the past eight years, a victory for Hsieh would represent no balance at all." The upcoming remembrance of the Feb. 28 incident (2-28) will re-energize pan-green supporters and will put the KMT in a very uncomfortable position just before the election.

The U.N. referendum, said Yang, will remain an important issue. "This is a very emotional issue." Yang believes, however, that it will be very difficult to pass. "If it does, it could be interpreted as representing de jure independence as it would have officially received the support of more than 50 percent of voters. This would also lead to a rise in Taiwan independence fundamentalism, while adding constraints on any winning president to deal with cross-strait relations."

Beijing would then be forced to decide how to react after the 2008 Olympics. "For the past five to 10 years, the Chinese leadership has generally not concerned itself with promoting 'reunification' with Taiwan; rather it has sought to counter Taiwan independence."