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Progress in China-Japan relations The deterioration of China-Japan relations during the five years of Junichiro Koizumi's premiership has been reversed, but concrete progress needs to be made if the dramatic improvement in relations in the past 14 months is to be sustainable. Both sides have already made serious efforts to improve relations, beginning with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's visit to Beijing in October 2006, followed by Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to Japan last spring. Also being planned is an exchange of visits by new Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda and Chinese President Hu Jintao, most likely in the early part of next year. The visits would take place on the 30th anniversary of the signing of a peace and friendship treaty by the two countries. Significantly, the treaty was signed on the Japanese side by the then-prime minister, Takeo Fukuda, father of the current leader. Such symbolism is important to China and Premier Wen Jiabao, who publicly mentioned this fact when he met with Fukuda last Tuesday in Singapore, where both men were attending the third East Asia Summit. The hope is that the junior Fukuda will carry on his father's work and raise Sino-Japanese relations to a new level. The two sides have reached consensus on some sensitive issues such as the handling of Taiwan, the construction of a strategic and mutually beneficial relationship, and achieving the goal of "peaceful coexistence, friendship for generations, mutually-beneficial cooperation and common development." In fact, public sentiment in both countries has shifted significantly since the improvement in governmental relations. According to a joint poll conducted by a Japanese and Chinese company, as of August, 33.1 percent of Japanese respondents viewed China favorably, compared to 12 percent the previous year. As for Chinese, 24.4 percent viewed Japan favorably, up from 14 percent a year earlier. These figures reflect changing images of Japan in the minds of the Chinese public. In 2005 and 2006, when Chinese students were asked "What first comes to mind when you think of Japan?" the top answer was the "Nanjing Massacre" of 1937. This year, however, the first answer was "cherry blossoms," with the Nanjing Massacre coming in second. The alteration in public opinion reflects shifts on the parts of the two governments, indicating that the recent positive trend can easily be reversed unless there is continued improvement in governmental relations.The Japanese side is attempting to ensure a good environment by issuing guidance to the media so that bilateral relations are not injured by careless reporting. On its part, China is in an even better position to ensure the positive behavior of its media. The high-level visits planned for early 2008 are part of the effort to continue to improve the relationship. But symbolism needs to be bolstered by actual progress. For that reason, China and Japan will open their first high-level economic dialogue in Beijing on Dec. 1. This meeting, whose theme is "Cooperation, Win-Win and Coordinated Development," is meant to provide a platform for the exchange of economic policies and development strategies. It will also be an opportunity to discuss bilateral economic concerns. The meeting will focus on macroeconomic issues, energy conservation and environmental protection, trade and investment, and regional and international cooperation. Since China replaced the United States as Japan's biggest trading partner last year, there will be a lot to discuss. This relationship is crucial to both countries; political obstacles must be resolved through deft diplomacy and not be allowed to sour the relationship. Currently, the main problem is the demarcation of the East China Sea because of the oil and gas resources beneath the seabed. The two sides have held 11 rounds of talks on their overlapping claims, with the latest one on Nov. 14, but with little progress. In principle, they have agreed that the solution is joint development, but there appears to be no agreement beyond that. It is clear that negotiators at the working level will be unable to make a breakthrough. So it is encouraging that the economic dialogue will be conducted at ministerial level, which increases the chances of success. China apparently holds the upper hand because the Chinese are believed to have successfully mapped the entire seabed area and know which sites are more likely to be productively exploited, while the Japanese do not have this information. Eventually, the issue may not be resolved until the leaders of both sides get involved, since there is a need for the two countries to demonstrate the political will to settle the matter. Frank.ching@gmail.com |
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