China princeling sees exit from Taiwan impasse

Diplomatically isolated Taiwan plans to hold a referendum next year on whether to seek to rejoin the world body. Even if it passes, however, the island’s bid is doomed because China is a veto-wielding permanent member of the Security Council.

Beijing has consistently vowed to bring Taiwan back under mainland rule, and has threatened to attack the democratic island if it formally declared independence.

Word of the planned vote prompted Chinese President Hu Jintao to tell U.S. counterpart George W. Bush this month that the next two years would be a period of “high danger” in the Taiwan Strait, widely seen as one of Asia’s most dangerous flashpoints.

Now, well-connected Beijing government adviser Lu De, in a rare interview, has floated the idea of staging a rival referendum as an alternative to waging war and threatening the smooth running of the Beijing Olypmics.

Beijing has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949. Taiwan’s government lost the U.N. China seat to the Communist People’s Republic in 1971, and has failed in successive re-entry bids over the past 15 years.

Though it still formally styles itself the Republic of China, Taipei is now recognized by just 24 countries, compared to more than 170 for Beijing.

“Many in the (Communist) Party advocate attacking (Taiwan) to maintain the territorial integrity of the motherland,” said Lu, a board member of the government-funded China Council for Promoting Peaceful Reunification.

“They think the Olympics can be sacrificed,” he told Reuters, referring to the 2008 Beijing Summer Games.

“But war is not our only choice ... (If) you Taiwan hold a referendum, we the whole country can also hold a referendum,” Lu, eldest son of late vice premier Lu Dingyi, told Reuters.

Lu said he was expressing a personal view. But as a “princeling” — the privileged offspring of the Party’s elite — he has informal access to the top leadership.

Even if the notion of a referendum is unrealistic, it underscores the Party’s deep anxieties about how to handle Taiwan during the Olympic year.

His comments are bold by Chinese standards because most officials are unwilling to deviate from the party line and risk their careers. Political correctness is key in China.

The 65-year-old shrugged off doubts over whether it was technically possible for the world’s most populous nation to hold a parallel referendum within a short period of time.

“Mobilization is not a problem,” he said, recalling that about 60 million Chinese signed a petition protesting against U.S. “invasion” during the 1950-53 Korean War.

Asked if the parallel referendum would create an unwanted precedent that could one day haunt China, the state banker-turned-economist said: “The political cost (of a referendum) is lowest.

“It can prevent bloodshed and deaths.”

Pressed whether China was overreacting to the planned Taiwan referendum, Lu said: “How did East Timor become independent?”

East Timor gained independence in 2002 after residents voted massively in favor of independence from Indonesia in a 1999 referendum that saw a 99 percent turnout. Post referendum violence was followed by a period of U.N. administration.

Lu likened Taiwan to a wife. “We can’t let our wife run away with someone else and do nothing,” he said.

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