Anybody-but-Blair resonates as EU picks its president

The focus on figures from smaller states -- and opposition to former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair -- may undercut the 27-nation EU's goal of using the new job to wield more influence in a world marked by the rise of China and India, analysts said.

Concern is mounting over a “minimalist solution” that would reduce the EU's “opportunity to have a clear voice in the world,” Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said on his Web site today.

Blair faces resistance for his role in launching the Iraq war in 2003 and concern that he would slight the bloc's smaller states, leading to speculation that a summit starting tonight will opt for a behind-the-scenes consensus builder such as Van Rompuy.

The Belgian leader, 62, best known for preventing Belgium from splitting apart during 11 months as prime minister, is the sort of dealmaker who won't overshadow leaders such as France's Nicolas Sarkozy and Germany's Angela Merkel, said Fraser Cameron, a former European Commission adviser who heads the EU-Russia Centre in Brussels.

“There's always the possibility of a dark horse emerging, but it seems that Herman Van Rompuy is the frontrunner, who has the big asset of not being in office long enough to make many enemies,” Cameron said. “He's very much an unknown quantity, but I think that's essentially what a majority of the member states are looking for.”

The summit starting at 6 p.m. in Brussels to appoint the president and foreign policy chief “might take a few hours, it might take all night,” Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, who will chair the talks, told reporters yesterday in Stockholm. He threatened to force a decision under rules that bar any single country from exercising a veto.

Blair failed last month to win the endorsement of European socialists. Instead, they're pushing for the foreign-policy job, effectively ceding the presidency to a center-right politician.

Paddy Power Plc, Ireland's biggest bookmaker, makes Van Rompuy the 4-9 favorite, ahead of Blair at 4-1, Juncker at 7-1 and Balkenende at 8-1.

EU leaders have sought consensus candidates when filling new posts, as when Wim Duisenberg of the Netherlands was named first central bank head in 1998 or when the job of foreign policy chief in 1999 went to Spain's Javier Solana, who had proven his coalition- building skills by guiding NATO through the Kosovo war.

Picking Blair as president would “undoubtedly give Europe a higher profile on the world stage,” Paul Hofheinz, president of the Lisbon Council, a Brussels-based research group, said in an Oct. 5 interview.

With Britain backing its former premier, U.K. Foreign Secretary David Miliband, 44, pulled out of the running for Solana's replacement. That shifted the focus to Massimo D'Alema, 60, a former Italian prime and foreign minister who sparked concern in eastern Europe because he belonged to the communist party during the Cold War.

Foreign Ministers

Another contender, Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Moratinos, has Sarkozy's backing, El Pais reported, without citing sources. One mark against him is that the EU's desire for “geographic balance” would work against keeping the foreign policy job in Spain's hands, especially since the commission is headed by a Portuguese, Jose Barroso.

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