U.N. bird flu chief: more flu spreads, more chance for it to mutate

“Just because bird flu itself is spreading doesn’t necessarily mean that we’ve got a greatly raised risk of human pandemic influenza,” David Nabarro, the U.N. coordinator for bird and human influenza, told The Associated Press. “The determinant ... will be a change in the genetic makeup of the virus causing the bird flu so it can cause sustained transmission among humans.”

“The concern we have is the more bird flu virus there is in the world, the more chance there is of the mutation,” he added.

Two of the last three global pandemics, all in the 20th century, originated in Asia.

Nabarro said animal health experts have told him that bird flu is reportedly present in wild birds without necessarily having symptoms, and that “migratory patterns do suggest that it would be prudent for countries in the rest of Europe, in the Middle East and in northern Africa to be on the lookout,” particularly since birds would soon begin their winter migration south.

Although he didn’t want to alarm countries, “we should be expecting the possibility of wild birds carrying highly pathogenic (bird flu) further south and that could lead to possible outbreaks in ... (the) Middle East and Africa,” said Nabarro, who will visit China and Vietnam as part of a regional tour to see how the U.N. can better support efforts to control bird flu.

Following the migration patterns, the Western hemisphere — including the United States — would be at lower risk since bird flu would have to be transferred somehow over Alaska, Nabarro said.

But the United States was at risk if a pandemic occurred.

“There’s a real chance that when the pandemic does start ... people infected with the pandemic virus could travel unknowingly to the United States,” he said. “When we look at what happened in Canada with SARS, we realize just how no country can be an island when it comes to infectious disease.”

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