Economy, 1st time voters and Bush led Obama's win

Overwhelming all other problems, more than six in 10 voters picked the economy as the most important issue facing the nation. Barack Obama had a clear edge with this group, leading John McCain among them by about 9 percentage points. All the other issues listed in the survey - Iraq, energy, terrorism and health care - were picked by one in 10 or fewer.

Four in 10 said their family financial status was worse than four years ago - the highest number to report that in a presidential race since at least 1992. Seven in 10 of this group were voting for Obama.

Overall, while four in 10 of McCain's voters said they are very worried the economy's problems will hurt their family finances over the next year, six in 10 of Obama's said the same.

Further underlining voters' preoccupation with the economy, nine in 10 said it is in bad shape and nearly the same number said they are worried about the economy's direction. Obama led McCain with those voters by about 10 percentage points.

Half of independents and nearly as many whites who say the economy is in bad shape voted for Obama. That was a far better than he did with independents and whites who think the economy is doing well.

New voters go for Obama in a big way

About one in 10 voters said this was the first year they have voted - roughly the same proportion of new voters as in 2004. About seven in 10 of them were voting for Obama. Two thirds of new voters were under age 30, one in five were black and nearly as many were Hispanic - all far exceeding their share of overall voters. All of those groups were voting overwhelmingly for Obama. In addition, nearly half were Democrats, compared to the four in 10 new voters who were Democrats in 2004. These new Democrats were almost unanimously backing Obama. A third of this year's new voters were independents - and about two-thirds of them were favoring Obama. New voters were making up about one in seven Obama supporters, about double McCain's share.

Bush's Shadow

As much as President George W. Bush tried to stay out of this year's presidential race, his gravitational pull was huge.

Voters were split about evenly over whether McCain would follow the policies of fellow Republican Bush. Those who said McCain would follow Bush gave nine in 10 of their votes to Obama. Almost as many who said McCain would carve his own path voted for the Arizona Republican.

A look inside those numbers shows the damage plainly. Four in 10 independents said McCain would continue Bush policies, and about nine in 10 of them voted for Obama. Even one in seven Republicans thought McCain would follow Bush. Of them, more than four in 10 voted for Obama.

Overall, nearly one in five who said they voted for Bush in 2004 said they were backing Obama.

The Palin Factor

Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential candidate, was a big factor in the voting - in both directions.

More than four in 10 Republicans and about the same share of conservatives said McCain's choice of the Alaska governor as his running mate was an important factor in deciding who they'd support. Underscoring how well she fired up the party's base, both of those groups leaned lopsidedly toward McCain.

But about four in 10 independents said Palin's selection had an important impact on their decision, and a narrow majority of them were supporting Obama. About the same number of moderates also said her choice was a factor - and almost six in 10 of them were Obama voters.

Overall, just shy of four in 10 said Palin was qualified to become president if necessary, while two-thirds said the same about her Democratic counterpart, Joe Biden. Two thirds of independents said Palin was not qualified, and three quarters of this group voted for Obama. Nearly a quarter of Republicans said Palin was not qualified, and over a third of them voted for Obama.

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