Former bishop’s lead narrows before Paraguay vote: poll

According to private pollster COIN, Lugo is seen winning the election with 34.5 percent of votes. Retired army general Lino Oviedo would get 28.9 percent, followed by ruling Colorado Party candidate Blanca Ovelar with 28.5 percent.

The scenario, published in daily newspaper Ultima Hora, is based on voter participation of 65 percent, which is similar to turnout in the 2003 general election.

If voter turnout fell to 40 percent, Ovelar would win the presidency with 34.1 percent of votes versus Lugo’s 31.4 percent and Oviedo’s 27.5 percent, the same poll showed.

Most recent voter surveys have put Ovelar in second place behind Lugo, rather than Oviedo.

In early April, a poll by First Analysis and Studies showed Lugo with a slightly larger 6.2 percentage point lead over his closest rival, Ovelar. At the same time, a survey by Ati Snead consultancy showed Lugo with a 10-point advantage.

A center-left coalition is backing Lugo’s candidacy while Ovelar represents the Colorado Party, which has ruled Paraguay for more than 60 years.

Ovelar served as education minister under President Nicanor Duarte Frutos, and she is the first woman to run for president in the poor country of 5.6 million people, which is widely known for corruption and contraband.

Accusations of fraud plagued the Colorado Party’s primary election and Ovelar struggled to rally party members around her, although some analysts believe she managed to do so in the campaign’s final stretch.

Oviedo was jailed for 5-1/2 years for plotting a failed coup in the mid-1990s. He launched his candidacy after the Supreme Court overturned his prison sentence last year.

On election day, the candidate who captures the most votes will win the presidency, with no provision for a second round of balloting.

The COIN consulting group surveyed 2,160 people nationwide during the first half of April. The group did not report the poll’s margin of error.

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