Public anger at government bungling of pension records had already slashed Abe’s support rates, and weekend remarks by Defence Minister Fumio Kyuma that appeared to condone the 1945 atomic bombings of two Japanese cities compounded the woes.

Hidenao Nakagawa, No. 2 in Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party, pledged on Wednesday to allay voters’ worries about their pensions and soothe outrage over Kyuma’s remarks.

“As a responsible party, the LDP will not run away from its troubles or make excuses,” Nakagawa, the party’s secretary general and de facto campaign manager, told Reuters in an interview.

“If we can appeal to the public for their trust and understanding, we can surely win them over,” Nakagawa said. But he declined to forecast just how many seats he expected the LDP and its junior coalition partner to win.

Despite Kyuma’s hasty resignation on Tuesday, Abe faced stiff criticism from opposition parties and media for appointing the gaffe prone politician in the first place and then refusing to fire him after his latest slip.

The 52-year-old Abe, a soft-spoken security hawk who wants to boost Japan’s global diplomatic clout, took over as LDP chief last September in hopes his popularity would help the party in the upper house poll.

Abe has won praise for mending ties with China, but the pension furor and doubts about his leadership abilities have pushed his support below the critical 30 percent level.

Kyuma’s resignation was the second by a cabinet minister since Abe took office in September, and came less than two months after his scandal-tainted farm minister committed suicide.

“The situation is getting worse and worse for the LDP,” said Toru Umemoto, a chief forex strategist who analyses politics for Barclays Capital.

The LDP and its junior coalition partner, the New Komeito party, need to win a total of 64 of the 121 seats up for grabs to keep their majority in the 242-seat upper house.

The New Komeito is aiming to get 13 seats.

Abe will not automatically have to step down if his coalition loses its majority in the upper house, since the lower chamber picks the premier.

With nearly a month left before the poll, analysts cautioned that predictions were risky, especially given the main opposition Democratic Party’s penchant for making mistakes at key junctures.

Nakagawa criticized Democratic Party leader Ichiro Ozawa for saying in a debate on Sunday with Abe that the United States had apologized to Germany for the 1945 firebombings of Dresden and should therefore apologize to Japan for its atomic attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

“There is no truth to it at all,” Nakagawa said, adding that the mistake meant Ozawa lacked credibility as a leader. Ozawa could not be reached for comment.

If the ruling bloc falls short by a few seats, it could keep its grip on the upper house by wooing independents or members of the People’s New Party, a tiny conservative party.

The danger line for Abe is around 45 seats for the LDP, said Yasunori Sone, a Keio University political science professor.

“If the LDP gets fewer than 45 seats, there will be two types of pressure on Abe to resign — from within his own party, and from the opposition and the mass media,” Sone said.

A bigger loss would threaten near paralysis in the legislature.

Bills, other than the budget or treaties, that are approved by the lower house but rejected by the upper chamber can only be enacted if returned to the lower house and approved there by a two-thirds majority — a time-consuming process.

Abe could try to stay on even if the LDP fares badly, but a showing below 40 seats for his party would likely prove fatal, Umemoto said.

Foreign Minister Taro Aso, an outspoken security hawk, is generally seen as frontrunner to succeed Abe if he steps down.

The opposition has pledged to press for an early lower house election if the ruling camp loses on July 29, but some analysts doubted whether the LDP-led bloc would be tempted by that option since it has a two-thirds majority in the lower chamber now.

No general election need be held until 2009.

Subscribe to The China Post and save.  Click hereSharePrintEmail

Write a Comment

Enter your comments - 800 characters max

Receive China Post promos

Respond to this email