Hong Kong bird flu outbreak raises doubts about detection

This was reinforced by the poultry outbreak investigation that found wild birds the “most likely” carrier.

But most experts believe wild birds cannot explain the prevalence of the disease in the region.

“The wild birds are more like canaries in a coal mine (for infected poultry),” said Martin Williams, a bird expert and environmental activist.

Peiris said that although the role of wild birds in the spread of the virus needed to be studied, intensive farming should be the main focus.

“Poultry production and the movement of poultry are probably far more important as the route of the maintenance and dissemination of these viruses,” said Peiris.

Scientists are concerned that poultry farms act as an ideal breeding ground for the virus to mutate as so many carriers are in close proximity.

H5N1 has killed more than 250 people worldwide since 2003 — and also led to the culling of millions of chickens — but scientists' deepest fear is that a pandemic killing millions could be triggered if the virus mutated to become easily transferable between humans.

And so any outbreak must be reported quickly.

“Controlling the poultry outbreak, I would say, is the most important element in the overall control of H5N1,” said Lo.

While no H5N1 reports have come out of Guangdong this year, eight people elsewhere in the mainland are known to have caught the virus, and five of them have died.

Seven of the eight had known close contact with poultry, but despite extensive testing — praised by the Food and Agriculture Organization — only one poultry outbreak has been found, in the northwestern province of Xinjiang.

“Human cases have become increasingly difficult not to report,” Lo said.

However “we always ask the question, when human cases are reported, where is the source of the infection?”

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