While there has been some transmission of bird flu among the family members of those first infected through close interaction with ill birds, the virus has not yet evolved to the point where it can spread easily among humans.

But researchers warn that it is moving in that direction and with the wrong combination of mutations it could become a pandemic flu.

Neither study will lead to a magic bullet to cure or prevent the virus, but researchers hope they will help health officials better track and understand it.

The first study found that bird flu strains in Europe and Africa have mutated to the point where they can infect the nose and throat of humans, which can increase the spread of the disease through coughing and sneezing.

“The change we’re seeing is necessary but not sufficient for bird flu to become pandemic,” said lead researcher Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

“We don’t know yet what (else) is needed. We are working on it.”

The early strains of the H5N1 virus first discovered in 1997 was unable to survive in the lower temperatures of human noses and throats. But Kawaoka and his team examined virus samples taken from a Vietnamese patient in 2004 and found a new strain that was able to replicate in his upper respiratory system.

Once they identified the structural changes associated with this strain they realized it was present in Europe and Africa, a development Kawaoka described as “scary.” However, he cautioned that bird flu is still more of a concern for public health officials then the general public.

“Treatment and prevention are still the same,” Kawaoka said in a telephone interview. “This discovery allows us to know which strain we’ll have to watch.”

In the second study, researchers compared viruses from the 1997 Hong Kong bird flu outbreak to that of the 1918 pandemic which killed 50 million people.

They identified a single protein present in both viruses which, when mutated by the change of a single amino acid, can dramatically increasing the virulence of the virus.

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