Japan-US war scenario makes no sense

The two countries that fought the bloody Pacific War are reported to have their joint naval exercise take place over waters near the Tiaoyutai Islands in December; the scenario involving Japan's recapturing of an unnamed remote southwestern isle from the enemy. Japan will send fighters and patrol planes as well as 250 paratroopers to oust the occupiers of that anonymous island, which must be the largest of the eight uninhabited islets the Japanese call the Senkaku archipelago. The trouble is that the small island group, which lies only 120 miles northeast of Keelung in the Western Pacific, is claimed not merely by Taiwan but by the People's Republic of China as well. It is important as a rich fishing ground, while geological surveys show there are huge petroleum reserves under its waters.

The scenario is naive, if not inane. Japan seems to believe Senkaku or Tiaoyutai, which is spelt Diaoyutai in Pinyin Romanization, is likely to be occupied by either the People's Liberation Army (PLA) or Taiwan's marine corps. Is it possible for the People's Republic to mount an amphibious assault, on what our fishermen used to call “No Man's Island,” without Taipei's acquiescence? Taiwan's defense forces certainly cannot match the PLA in all-out hostilities, but is more than strong enough to hold their ground in denying safe-passage for easy access to Diaoyutai. Does Taiwan have any wish to occupy Tiaoyutai, which means Fishing Platform? Of course, not. As a matter of fact, the tiny islet isn't worth occupying. In other words, there is no ground whatsoever for fear that Senkaku may be invaded and occupied.

Even if Senkaku were occupied, could a small 250-strong contingent drive out the invaders from China? Don't make us laugh. The Imperial Japanese Army sent an infantry regiment to occupy uninhabited Attu in the Aleutian Islands immediately after Admiral Yamamoto Isoroku's sneak attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941. An airdropped company-size fighting group would be too lightly armed to fight off a much larger occupying force. Then, what would Japan want to do with Senkaku if its next-to-impossible recapture of the isle were successful? Station a larger garrison on a barren, habitable islet? It would be easily retaken by the PLA, if it so wished.

We fully understand the PLA is flexing its muscle in the East China Sea and planning to extend its influence past the Okinawa island chain into the Pacific. It's only natural for Japan to be concerned. But that does not mean the Japanese have to ask Uncle Sam to take part in a joint maneuver against their potential enemy. How does the Pentagon want the Americans to participate in the joint exercise? The United States keeps a Marine division at an air station on Okinawa. Its Pacific fleet may send an aircraft carrier combat group. The United States may choose to show its flag around to alleviate Japan's newly acquired Sinophobia.

But all to no avail. The end result of the reportedly oncoming joint exercise will be to increase tensions between Japan and the People's Republic Of China. That's the worst scenario none of the countries involved hope to unfold.

Subscribe to The China Post and save 25%. Click here

SharePrintEmail

Write a Comment

Terms

Enter your comments - 3000 characters max

Type in image code

Submit

 Receive China Post promos
 Respond to this email