Despite bluster, N. Korea could be about to collapse

The United States currently stations over 28,000 of its troops in South Korea, and it's not a stretch to imagine that China worries that without North Korea, U.S. troops could one day actually be stationed along its northern border. South Korea worries about the economic ramifications of reunification, including a bill for modernizing the North that would be massive.

For its part, the United States is keen to avoid becoming involved in a second Korean War. For these reasons and more, it's fair to say that in today's global political game, most players are hoping to keep things as they are vis-a-vis North Korea. History, however, marches to its own beat and despite the hopes of some for the preservation of the status quo, the downfall of the North Korean regime could be much closer than it appears. The long-suffering North Korean people may be being pushed too far.

All recent reports indicate that life, except for a small echelon of the elite, is getting harder in the North. The Economist magazine reported in May that the few aid workers allowed into the North are reporting that hunger levels have grown considerably worse in recent years, and this is in a nation that already faces widespread electrical blackouts, substandard medical care and other horrors.

As events in Europe in 1989 demonstrate, things can change very quickly.

While no one knows for sure if or when the North will collapse, one point many agree on is that all the actors concerned are ill-prepared for this very real possibility.

The end of one of the most brutal regimes in modern history could be just around the corner, but as the world focuses on individual belligerent actions by the North, many may be failing to see the forest for the trees.

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