Ambiguous ambiguity

While China has long warned that the United States has been interfering in China's internal affairs or encouraging the island's split from the mainland, Taiwan has expressed a continuing interest in having the U.S. continue its policy of supplying arms, offering firm opposition to any use of force in the Taiwan Strait and being against any pressures to negotiate on PRC terms.

Earlier this week, ruling Kuomintang Legislator Lin Yu-fang (林郁方) received yet another “ambiguous message” from Washington, regarding Taiwan's request to purchase either diesel-electric submarines or F-16 C/D aircraft.

Even if the U.S. has not openly rejected the aircraft sale, Washington has not yet decided on Taiwan's requests and is offering the same old alternatives, such as helping Taiwan upgrade its aging F-16 A/B aircraft.

Contrary to all expectations, U.S. policymakers are still facing the same old question, that is, whether Washington can deter China from its declared willingness to use force to achieve political control over the island or deter Taiwan from precipitous actions towards declaring independence.

For more than 60 years, the U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity has successfully avoided Washington being drawn into a major conflict. But, the quickly improving cross-strait relations require the United States to reevaluate its commitment to strategic ambiguity.

A Taiwanese legislator told U.S. officials that the recently signed economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) between Taiwan and China is aimed at improving relations between the two sides and creating a stable, peaceful and prosperous situation across the Taiwan Strait.

The U.S. officials' reactions to the agreement were nothing but polite. They expressed hopes that it would offer benefits to other countries in East Asia and the United States, and they expressed support for Taiwan's efforts in seeking international recognition, particularly its bid to join the International Civil Aviation Organization.

But, as long as peace and stability can be preserved, should strategic ambiguity be the only U.S. deterrence policy toward the security issue in the Taiwan Strait? With countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), China, Japan and Korea preparing to dismantle trade barriers with one another, why should Taipei shy away from cutting a trade deal with Beijing?

Thanks to Taiwan's “flexible diplomacy” with China, Foreign Minister Timothy Chin-tien Yang (楊進添) recently remarked that both sides of the Taiwan Strait have also stopped their “tug-of-war” to win over diplomatic allies.

The Bush Administration and now the Obama Administration have also welcomed the stabilization of Beijing-Taipei relations. Recall that the comments by Chairman Raymond Burghardt of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) suggested that the rapidly growing ties between Taiwan and China do not undercut American strategic interests in the western Pacific.

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