Taiwan is in the center of China's megatrend

Regime changes resulting from democratic elections serve as a bloodless and moderate voice of confidence by the people. Success is not merely the path to a happy life for the Chinese people or to global influence for the Chinese government.

For China, success is a must. It is an existential fight for the communist party's continued rule over the country. As long as the party can keep making Chinese people rich, the people will care less about how they are ruled.

Beijing made a big mistake in last year's global economic crisis by linking the “eight percent target” to the stability of the county. It formalized the correlation between the stability (read existence) of the party's rule not just to economic success, but to an astonishingly big one of near double digit growth amid the greatest recession in generations. Success cannot last forever.

There will come a day when the Chinese government will need to justify its existence by means other than the country's economy might.

On the other hand, even if China's success is sustainable, it will jeopardize the rule of the communist party. For now, China's economic growth actually keeps its middle class from demanding democracy because these elites in coastal cities fear that giving power to billions of less well-off and less-educated people in rural areas will throw China into chaos and wipe out their wealth.

The more people China lifts above the poverty line, the more appealing democracy and self-determination will look to them.

That is where Taiwan comes in. Any success in cross-strait relations will be of extreme value to China's claim of legitimacy. A friendly tie with Taiwan will help keep the volume of secessionist opinions down within China's borders. By illustrating its ability to cooperate closely with Taiwan, the communist party earns its right to co-exist with a Westernized democracy.

Taiwan should recognize and value its strategic importance to China's future. Just as Taiwan needs the Chinese market to develop its economy, China needs Taiwan's democracy to market its legitimacy. Realizing such a relation, Taiwan can increase its clout at the negotiation table with China.

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