What to possibly expect as Obama heads for China

One China expert, Bonnie Glaser of the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, was quoted by the United Daily News as predicting that Beijing might ask Obama to recognize China's “core interests,” a new code phrase meaning China's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan, Xinjiang and Tibet.

Glaser told the paper that Obama's best tactic for dealing with such a request would be to carefully use the neutral word “acknowledge” instead of “recognize,” such as by saying the U.S. “acknowledges” Beijing's core interests.

This would be taking a cue from the Shanghai Communique signed during the 1972 visit to Shanghai by then-U.S. President Richard Nixon. In that document, the U.S. side stated that it “acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China.”

By using “acknowledge” instead of “recognize,” Washington delicately avoided endorsement of Beijing's “one China” policy or taking sides in the sovereignty dispute between Beijing and Taipei.

Although it would be best if Obama refrained from addressing the “core interests” subject at all, use of neutral terms such as “acknowledge” would indeed be wise if there is no way around making such a statement during this trip.

Some observers in Taiwan are fearful that the new American leader might be too accommodating to Beijing's requests. However, President Obama is a very talented public speaker and has proven his familiarity with the Taiwan issue in the past.

The situation in the Taiwan Strait today is markedly different from how things were when Bill Clinton and George W. Bush visited mainland China in the past. Back then, cross-strait negotiations had been called off and tensions were rising between Taipei and Beijing. But today, Taipei and Beijing are actively negotiating with each other and relations are warming rapidly.

Because of this, Obama would be wise to merely encourage these cross-strait interactions while refraining from making any major policy statements in favor of one side or the other.

It is even possible that Obama might make positive statements about Taiwan and the development of democracy here while interacting with his hosts in mainland China.

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