What to possibly expect as Obama heads for China

According to reports, President Obama is expected to take part in a “town hall”-style activity where he will interact directly with students and youths in Shanghai. Obama is also expected to personally tour the U.S. pavilion at the World Expo and meet with American businesspeople in Shanghai.

He is then expected to visit the capital Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Hu Jintao. Like his predecessors, Obama will probably also deliver a speech at Tsinghua University or Peking University.

Given the tremendous interaction between the United States and mainland China in recent years, the time is ripe for a summit meeting between Obama and Hu. Following last year's global financial crisis, these two countries have become even more interdependent upon each other, with mainland China financing U.S. debt and U.S. imports fueling the mainland's economic development.

This phenomenon and its effects on the global economy have recently been dubbed the rise of “G-2” or “Chimerica” by some observers.

Given Obama's connections to traditionally protectionist groups such as labor unions, this trip should help persuade Obama that free trade brings about more benefits than protectionism. On the other hand, Obama's unprecedented celebrity status in the region will provide him a unique opportunity to communicate directly with ordinary people through his speeches and activities.

While he is in Beijing, President Obama will surely be presented with mainland China's usual demands when it comes to policy on Taiwan. Beijing will ask Obama to make statements recognizing Beijing's “one China” stance, which claims that Taiwan is a part of the People's Republic of China. The mainland will also surely repeat its demand that Washington cease arms sales to Taipei. Obama will probably also be asked to make a public statement opposing Taiwan independence.

For many years, Beijing has sought the signing of a joint communique addressing these highly sensitive issues. But successive U.S. presidents, ranging from George H.W. Bush to Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, have politely declined to sign any joint communiques or make highly sensitive statements.

President Obama would be wise to continue the previous policy of maintaining the status quo and refraining from signing a joint communique. Like other presidents in the past, Obama can repeat the diplomatic language of the three communiques signed in the 1970s and 1980s and the Taiwan Relations Act.

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