Foggy Bottom’s textbook answer is the status quo across the Strait is what Washington defines it to be. By way of elaboration, the State Department reiterates that the United States is committed to its “One China” policy based on the three joint communiques and the Taiwan Relations Act, and does not support independence for Taiwan or any unilateral moves that may change the status quo as it sees fit in line with that commitment. That means no use of force or threat to use force by China against Taiwan and prudence on the part of Taiwan in managing all aspects of cross-strait relations. For both sides, it means no statements or actions that would unilaterally alter Taiwan’s status. Beyond that, nothing is made clear.

With that strategic ambiguity, Washington does not specify what action it will take if and when China uses or threatens to use force against Taiwan, while making clear the U.S. expects a peaceful solution to the Taiwan issue. As a matter of fact, that’s the best the U.S. can do.

But Washington’s strategic ambiguity has been arbitrarily interpreted in Taipei, as well as in Beijing. President Chen Shui-bian regards Taiwan and China as two countries on opposite sides of the Strait, or, in his own words, “one country on each side of the Strait.” He declared it as the status quo, which, of course, is considered a unilateral move on the part of Taipei to change the status quo. Beijing has deployed close to 1,000 cruise missiles, all targeting Taiwan, and passed an Anti-secession Law to codify an automatic invasion of the island if independence is declared. China has gotten away without an American censure. Well, Uncle Sam does not want to specify what action it will take on the question of a threat to use force against Taiwan, and has chosen to keep his mouth shut.

But Chen is ready to write a new constitution for Taiwan before he steps down on May 20 next year. He does not think the adoption of the Constitution is a unilateral move to change the status quo, although it is considered a declaration of de jure independence, which the United States certainly does not support.

Washington has to replace strategic ambiguity with strategic clarity and tell Chen clearly that the United States opposes any step toward independence. That may be the only way to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan.

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