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Updated Tuesday, April 22, 2008 0:00 am TWN, The China Post news staff

What are the aircraft career battle groups for?

Moreover, Hu, who refrained from making any remarks that might help Ma’s opponent Frank Hsieh, talked with President George W. Bush over the phone after the March 22 election and they were agreed that dialogue should be resumed between China and Taiwan on the basis of what is known as the consensus of 1992. Under the tacit agreement, which is a sine qua non for the resumption of talks across the Strait, both Beijing and Taipei acknowledge there is but one China, whose connotations or definition can be orally and individually expressed. The dialogue between the Straits Exchange Foundation in Taipei and its Chinese counterpart Association for Relations across the Taiwan Strait — disrupted in 1999 after Lee had broached his “special state-to-state relationship” between Taiwan and China — cannot be resumed because President Chen refuses to accept that precondition. But Ma, the president-elect, is more than willing to get the talks underway without delay.

So why are the three American naval task forces staying near Taiwan until the day when Ma will be sworn in as president? Who are they guarding against?

The logical conclusion is that the Americans are afraid President Chen may do something extraordinary to prevent Ma’s inauguration. Frank Hsieh attacked Ma in a smear campaign for carrying a “green card,” a certificate of permanent residence in the United States with which the latter might flee Taiwan in case “something very wrong” occurred across the Strait. Campaigning for Hsieh, Chen declared repeatedly he could not “transfer power” to a green card holder. The United States wants to ensure a “peaceful transition of power” in Taiwan. Washington knows Chen is an extraordinary man capable of doing anything to survive his certain trial for corruption. His first lady was indicted for corruption in 2006, charged with borrowing invoices and receipts from relatives and friends to claim an NT$18.4 million reimbursement from a public fund under her husband’s control for the conduct of “affairs of state.” She is on trial. Chen was not indicted, as Taiwan’s president is immune to criminal prosecution, but was regarded as a co-defendant, who will be formally charged on leaving office. The first couple will stand trial together after May 20 and the chances are that they will be both convicted. He is likely to wind up in prison like Chun Do Huan, a former president of South Korea.

The Americans are overly cautious. Chen Shui-bian may try, but cannot provoke China into attacking Taiwan to give him an excuse to declare war and stay in office. Nor can he concoct a “coup d’etat” to remain in power. Taiwan is a democracy where the rule of law prevails. No colonels would listen, when told to lead their troops to overthrow a government. And it is impossible for the couple to flee like Fernando and Imelda Marcos of the Philippines. The Filipino first couple couldn’t have fled without the help of Uncle Sam.

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