Could Frank Hsieh win?

Frank Hsieh, the DPP’s standard bearer, seems to be facing a mission impossible to defeat the Kuomintang’s presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou, who is on a roll and looks unstoppable in his quest for the presidency. He is leading Hsieh by more than 20 percent in opinion polls.

But wait a minute. Opinion polls can be misleading. Look at the United States’ red-hot contest for the presidential nomination. If polls were to be trusted, Sen. Barack Obama should have been the winner of the New Hampshire primaries, because all polls had shown he led Sen. Hillary Clinton by a comfortable margin. But Hillary turned out to be the winner.

Frank Hsieh is an underdog, to be sure. But the former mayor of Kaohsiung and premier cannot be written off easily. In an election, like in a ball game, it is not over until it’s over. Anything can happen at the last minute to turn the tables.

Ironically, Beijing could lend Hsieh a hand. This may sound paradoxical, but it’s not improbable. The Washington Post said in an editorial this week that if Hsieh “has any hope of victory, it is that China’s heavy-handed pressure tactics will touch off a backlash.”

Would Beijing adopt such tactics against Taipei? Yes, in a sense. But Beijing is smart enough to let Washington do its dirty work for it. Remember John Negroponte’s recent statement in Beijing? The No. 2 man of the U.S. State Department branded President Chen Shui-bian’s planned referendum on joining the United Nations as “provocative.” Beijing is pulling no punch on Taiwan to isolate the island diplomatically. Malawi’s switch of allegiance two weeks ago is the latest example.

Will these pressure tactics touch off a backlash? Certainly. Beijing should have learned a bitter lesson from its previous tactics of “verbal threat and military intimidation.” In 1996, mainland China lobbed missiles toward Taiwan’s shores to intimidate the voters against voting for Lee Teng-hui, the independence-minded president. In 2000, the premier Zhu Rongji shouted angry threats before national television, warning Taiwan’s voters of the serious consequences if they voted for Chen Shui-bian. These tactics proved counterproductive, helping Lee and Chen win the presidency.

So, what are the chances for Frank Hsieh? His chances are low, even “zero” according to former DPP legislator Shen Fu-hsiung, a noted political analyst. “Zero” if Beijing chose to stay put and shut up. However, if Beijing wants to get involved to influence the outcome of Taiwan’s election, it will only help Hsieh win as it did in 1996 and 2000.

Could Hsieh win? He needs a miracle to turn it around. If Beijing refuses to root for Hsieh by watching on sidelines, and if Ma Ying-jeou can maintain the momentum and not fumble the ball, then Shen Fu-hsiung’s prediction could be prescient.

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