Missiles against the mainland?

Last Friday, both the New York Times and the International Herald Tribute reported that Taiwan, led by a pro-independence government, was deploying long-range missiles against the mainland. It was a follow-up to an AP dispatch from Taipei two weeks earlier. According to these reports, Taiwan has in recent months tested a land-attack cruise missile with a range of 1,000 kilometers, or 621 miles, that could carry a 400-kilogram warhead to targets as distant as Shanghai.

Offensive missile strikes are now part of Taiwan’s planned response to an attack from the mainland. Taiwan’s military currently has no long-range missiles that could attack distant targets on the mainland. Senior military officials and lawmakers in the ruling Democratic Progressive Party have confirmed that the land-attack cruise missiles are under development.

In March, the Washington-based Defense News newspaper reported that this missile had been tested on Feb. 2 at the Jiupeng testing range in Pingtung County on Taiwan’s southeast coast. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry had confirmed the test without giving any further details. In the first phase of its annual Han Kuang exercise in April, Taiwan’s military conducted a computer simulation of an engagement with China in which missiles were fired at military targets on the mainland. A U.S. delegation led by the retired commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, Admiral Dennis Blair, observed the exercise. The U.S. and other powers are unwilling to supply these kinds of weapons to Taiwan, so the island has to develop its own. However, it is unlikely that Taiwan’s cruise missiles would have a dramatic impact on the military balance across the Taiwan Strait, given the speed and scale of China’s military modernization.

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