Chen Shui-bian’s trick can’t fool the United States

This attempt of his is only a campaign gimmick, and leaders of Taiwan’s most important ally, the United States, are well aware of it.

And the U.S. is now concerned that the president’s action is having an effect on the security of Taiwan. Washington has openly opposed his plan in stronger terms than ever. Chen’s government should keep in mind the fact that support from the U.S. is essential for Taiwan’s security.

The Bush administration recently stepped up pressure on Chen to drop the referendum plan, with Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte calling it a mistake. He urged the island’s leadership to, as he put it, behave “in a responsible manner.” In an interview with Hong Kong television, Negroponte said the referendum would be “a step towards independence” and called on Chen Shui-bian to honor the status quo between Taiwan and China.

Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has said it plans to hold a referendum whether the island should seek U.N. membership under the name of “Taiwan,” alongside presidential elections next March.

The Republic of China was a United Nations member until 1971, when the world body recognized Beijing as the legal government of China. The U.N. rejected the ROC’s most recent membership bid last month. President Chen has recently proposed the holding of a referendum on U.N. membership concurrently with the presidential election set for March.

What’s his purpose? Why does he plan to have the referendum held in tandem with the presidential election? The answers to these questions are clear to keen observers of Taiwan politics.

Strangely, some Taiwanese people are baffled or unaware. In fact, a rather large number of Taiwan residents support the idea of having Taiwan become a U.N. member under the name Taiwan. These people believe the island should be an independent nation that’s completely separate from the mainland of China.

Unfortunately, Taiwan stands no chance of rejoining the U.N., and even the idea that Taiwan can become a state that’s separate from the mainland is an illusion. The United States has been critical of President Chen before. But the Negroponte comments, in an interview Monday with Hong Kong-based Phoenix TV, were the strongest to date, and the State Department made unusual efforts to draw attention to them.

The deputy secretary said the U.S. officials have great concerns about the plan because they see it as a step toward a declaration of independence for Taiwan, a move that would alter the delicate status quo with China.

Taiwan is unable to rejoin the U.N. because mainland China is one of the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council. These members hold veto power and can block the adoption of a resolution. Also, it’s well-nigh impossible for Taiwan to achieve de jure independence because war will break out immediately between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait if the island decides it’s an independent state.

President Chen Shui-bian and the DPP are not very good at bettering the quality of life for the people of the island. Over the past years, a growing number of the island’s residents have lived a life of hardship and misery. Taiwan’s economic performance, which used to outshine that of all other “Asian Tigers,” has fallen behind that of South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong.

The presidential election next year may well bring the DPP’s rule to an end. If that happens, President Chen and some of his family members will face imprisonment. He is trying everything possible to prevent that scenario.

A common method that politicians use to influence the outcome of an election in their own favor is to confuse voters. This ruse is popular especially in Taiwan. Many Taiwanese voters are undereducated and have only a vague idea which candidates are really capable.

Chen’s U.N. bid is designed to confuse voters. The attempt is intended to create and promote the false idea that the DPP is more concerned about Taiwan’s international standing and that its rival intends to reunify with the mainland at the expense of Taiwan residents’ well-being.

This trick that Chen is using can only fool the innocent here on Taiwan. The experts in the White House will be deceived. Washington has traditionally been supportive of the island in the latter’s struggle for security in the face of a possible attack from mainland China.

Although the U.S. has broken off formal diplomatic relations with the ROC, Washington has been friendly with Taipei over the years. It remains the ROC’s staunchest ally. Taiwan can’t afford to lose the support of this friend, but many of the steps the DPP has taken in recent years have damaged the good ties between the two sides.

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